Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2018-02-22

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14939 7090 939 337 166 86 4 0
OW 0 65 182 109 87 78 19 0
VODI 0 31 141 121 162 209 102 0
ODI 0 11 74 81 120 378 237 3
CDI 0 18 50 62 115 423 613 83
VCDI 0 351 47 105 111 603 7696 2111
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14781 6933 984 434 222 85 16 0
OW 0 75 133 142 79 105 46 0
VODI 0 29 97 155 102 146 108 0
ODI 0 4 39 72 119 186 317 3
CDI 0 0 8 43 89 264 816 51
VCDI 0 0 0 10 37 505 6670 4254
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14620 6885 1054 377 199 122 2 0
OW 0 67 281 104 74 98 38 0
VODI 0 3 156 97 113 143 172 1
ODI 0 0 42 69 70 116 276 13
CDI 0 0 12 52 73 132 773 89
VCDI 0 0 5 22 49 305 6992 4463
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14620 6901 1109 383 196 137 11 0
OW 0 48 233 87 82 80 64 0
VODI 0 6 150 106 104 138 141 0
ODI 0 0 38 70 73 120 257 12
CDI 0 0 14 44 71 117 766 86
VCDI 0 0 6 31 52 324 7014 4468

Date: 2018-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14559 7244 824 415 214 49 17 0
OW 0 193 250 153 86 78 24 0
VODI 0 44 162 210 150 156 85 0
ODI 0 20 54 99 199 215 349 1
CDI 0 6 40 48 232 421 807 8
VCDI 0 1 39 67 216 1094 6970 2360
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14559 7094 880 457 238 71 18 0
OW 0 188 196 157 82 95 59 0
VODI 0 113 106 124 120 146 189 0
ODI 0 56 40 72 125 138 345 0
CDI 0 39 53 82 186 290 627 3
VCDI 0 18 94 100 346 1273 7014 2366

Date: 2018-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14097 7422 1072 203 92 46 13 0
OW 0 95 240 163 69 108 62 0
VODI 0 58 157 168 137 207 173 0
ODI 0 9 92 111 130 146 370 0
CDI 0 0 69 99 145 236 951 13
VCDI 0 0 48 102 173 933 7464 2486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14097 7251 1015 220 88 46 23 0
OW 0 152 185 112 66 94 66 0
VODI 0 107 149 131 102 162 163 0
ODI 0 60 107 117 125 184 383 7
CDI 0 14 99 99 124 231 921 57
VCDI 0 0 123 167 241 959 7477 2435

Date: 2018-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13838 7064 963 406 134 43 2 0
OW 0 68 183 170 125 75 10 0
VODI 0 32 72 171 184 184 81 0
ODI 0 14 51 133 150 239 220 0
CDI 0 7 64 95 147 257 793 6
VCDI 0 1 160 221 305 1444 7609 2438
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13838 6991 947 389 129 39 4 0
OW 0 92 138 164 125 82 33 0
VODI 0 53 86 156 150 195 101 0
ODI 0 25 44 99 139 174 218 0
CDI 0 14 41 110 132 261 751 25
VCDI 0 11 237 278 370 1491 7608 2419


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