Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2017-12-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15815 7406 749 391 264 201 200 0
OW 0 145 309 127 91 49 72 0
VODI 0 64 140 137 126 88 67 0
ODI 0 19 51 90 102 158 102 0
CDI 0 14 22 40 90 222 322 15
VCDI 0 10 41 46 151 461 5548 4214
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15614 7387 1026 346 195 183 287 0
OW 0 10 117 178 182 102 56 0
VODI 0 11 47 94 162 174 132 0
ODI 0 5 7 28 49 176 200 0
CDI 0 0 10 10 42 189 510 44
VCDI 0 0 2 3 12 142 5933 4494
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15974 7378 881 264 102 119 122 0
OW 0 93 192 172 96 79 25 0
VODI 0 50 157 204 124 128 54 0
ODI 0 13 35 96 118 126 106 3
CDI 0 8 23 55 95 162 413 19
VCDI 0 2 39 59 128 471 7588 2386
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15974 7400 955 305 134 132 121 0
OW 0 68 129 153 69 79 26 0
VODI 0 51 148 181 121 114 58 0
ODI 0 17 40 97 119 129 92 3
CDI 0 8 25 60 93 153 386 21
VCDI 0 0 30 54 127 478 7625 2384

Date: 2017-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15642 7188 1118 292 124 85 81 0
OW 0 21 165 180 108 92 46 0
VODI 0 14 129 213 268 218 105 0
ODI 0 3 9 51 104 167 192 0
CDI 0 8 6 13 52 180 524 38
VCDI 0 3 12 16 39 451 6149 4053
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15642 7148 1116 355 149 109 106 0
OW 0 33 163 164 138 84 37 0
VODI 0 24 106 118 148 139 111 0
ODI 0 17 24 69 108 137 128 0
CDI 0 10 13 38 92 174 299 37
VCDI 0 5 17 21 60 550 6416 4054

Date: 2017-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15428 7639 1039 272 114 71 97 0
OW 0 37 186 163 86 59 43 0
VODI 0 18 166 162 231 204 63 0
ODI 0 1 54 97 140 187 116 0
CDI 0 0 17 56 100 217 380 5
VCDI 0 0 2 24 128 384 6421 3752
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15428 7530 937 306 145 129 125 0
OW 0 89 218 95 87 79 55 0
VODI 0 42 161 120 155 136 103 0
ODI 0 20 67 84 103 113 145 0
CDI 0 12 42 93 122 177 339 44
VCDI 0 2 39 76 187 488 6353 3713

Date: 2017-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15485 7726 785 308 106 115 84 0
OW 0 130 186 158 87 51 45 0
VODI 0 56 175 203 200 201 47 0
ODI 0 32 80 138 138 160 118 0
CDI 0 18 62 106 113 141 416 13
VCDI 0 1 59 131 325 701 6336 2923
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15485 7364 746 388 154 151 143 0
OW 0 211 146 90 89 76 30 0
VODI 0 135 128 87 101 165 108 0
ODI 0 82 71 60 70 112 159 1
CDI 0 67 97 131 99 108 333 18
VCDI 0 104 159 288 456 757 6273 2917


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