Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2017-10-05

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24253 5970 856 387 137 38 3 0
OW 0 0 26 83 94 51 11 0
VODI 0 0 1 49 101 110 39 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 42 113 138 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 126 566 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 156 1735 3049
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24691 5910 679 408 105 18 6 0
OW 0 1 37 89 77 23 8 0
VODI 0 0 7 43 82 114 38 0
ODI 0 0 1 10 49 134 105 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 88 379 435 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 188 2303 2064
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24888 5490 732 378 122 30 5 0
OW 0 10 55 90 74 26 6 0
VODI 0 0 29 55 99 79 21 0
ODI 0 0 1 10 55 99 75 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 36 180 280 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 28 261 2451 2481
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24888 5498 750 409 132 30 7 0
OW 0 2 46 59 69 26 4 0
VODI 0 0 20 44 84 72 20 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 57 94 56 0
CDI 0 0 1 12 39 175 246 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 278 2505 2481

Date: 2017-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23837 5652 937 307 240 50 6 0
OW 1 2 46 94 107 72 9 0
VODI 0 0 9 37 57 120 47 0
ODI 0 0 1 11 34 103 152 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 87 510 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 105 2031 3488
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23838 5654 969 379 325 121 27 0
OW 0 0 15 40 54 77 39 0
VODI 0 0 7 20 35 98 106 0
ODI 0 0 2 10 22 69 130 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 55 362 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 117 2091 3486

Date: 2017-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24099 5397 777 317 194 75 8 0
OW 2 5 40 70 109 52 14 0
VODI 0 1 11 42 62 138 63 0
ODI 0 0 2 10 13 98 149 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 8 80 460 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 111 2170 3575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24101 5398 809 378 318 179 65 0
OW 0 5 17 41 28 71 69 0
VODI 0 0 4 17 28 79 145 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 9 57 164 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 3 54 419 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 114 2002 3575

Date: 2017-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23980 5809 487 278 174 44 10 0
OW 0 20 35 77 119 50 11 0
VODI 0 6 13 43 90 99 58 0
ODI 0 2 6 8 21 113 136 0
CDI 0 0 2 3 9 86 373 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 145 2924 2928
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23980 5824 523 352 313 156 100 0
OW 0 11 15 43 55 58 72 0
VODI 0 2 4 11 39 91 144 0
ODI 0 0 1 3 6 56 173 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 604 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 132 2419 2909


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