Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2017-07-13

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15799 6246 2466 838 647 693 300 0
OW 0 0 23 51 61 357 359 0
VODI 0 0 7 45 45 370 794 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 34 178 1121 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 12 130 2192 269
VCDI 0 0 0 2 7 9 958 4123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16080 6437 2662 970 694 531 159 0
OW 0 0 42 103 213 302 139 0
VODI 0 0 15 112 228 415 482 0
ODI 0 0 1 35 72 239 1182 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 12 68 1831 777
VCDI 0 0 0 1 5 3 749 3587
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15770 6686 2605 1108 1057 368 174 0
OW 0 0 37 129 276 309 147 0
VODI 0 0 3 121 239 454 510 0
ODI 0 0 1 28 56 191 1111 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 16 78 1818 961
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2 0 617 3273
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15770 6686 2613 1125 1096 391 202 0
OW 0 0 30 129 236 291 126 0
VODI 0 0 2 101 233 438 504 0
ODI 0 0 1 32 65 207 1114 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 14 73 1881 1058
VCDI 0 0 0 5 2 0 550 3176

Date: 2017-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16415 6465 3189 1303 817 344 138 0
OW 0 0 52 179 221 201 141 0
VODI 0 0 19 111 189 330 467 0
ODI 0 0 12 38 73 268 1077 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 8 30 1964 1891
VCDI 0 0 0 4 0 0 166 2038
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16415 6465 3186 1202 763 330 140 0
OW 0 0 53 231 257 228 190 0
VODI 0 0 11 146 203 308 602 0
ODI 0 0 10 44 53 235 866 0
CDI 0 0 12 19 32 70 1928 1816
VCDI 0 0 0 2 0 2 227 2113

Date: 2017-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16690 6566 3212 1235 828 406 152 0
OW 0 0 36 111 210 256 187 0
VODI 0 0 11 68 146 348 584 0
ODI 0 0 10 24 60 225 930 1
CDI 0 0 1 6 12 41 1770 1957
VCDI 0 0 0 3 0 1 333 1739
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16690 6563 3191 1099 752 389 153 0
OW 0 3 57 168 245 272 221 0
VODI 0 0 9 117 167 311 605 0
ODI 0 0 3 41 60 215 769 0
CDI 0 0 10 20 32 90 1901 1972
VCDI 0 0 0 2 0 0 307 1725

Date: 2017-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17926 7270 1934 1122 783 210 105 0
OW 0 0 83 145 272 218 143 0
VODI 0 0 35 100 318 378 341 0
ODI 0 0 15 41 93 306 752 0
CDI 0 0 4 9 7 137 3240 295
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 0 342 1534
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17926 7267 1852 1001 765 240 134 0
OW 0 3 141 194 225 185 121 0
VODI 0 0 55 136 343 349 346 0
ODI 0 0 11 65 111 288 542 0
CDI 0 0 13 21 29 187 3428 341
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 352 1488


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