Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2017-03-23

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13555 6609 640 385 55 30 18 0
OW 0 46 221 228 62 20 32 0
VODI 0 11 154 208 142 62 53 0
ODI 0 0 61 164 166 158 166 7
CDI 0 0 23 126 171 227 467 20
VCDI 0 0 20 172 320 654 8208 4498
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13384 6701 678 534 108 53 14 0
OW 0 74 208 224 95 42 20 0
VODI 0 45 134 283 186 145 55 0
ODI 0 3 48 155 136 177 102 0
CDI 0 0 30 100 134 327 479 1
VCDI 0 0 35 55 87 883 9878 2546
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13460 6711 580 520 97 48 17 0
OW 0 109 259 224 91 54 21 0
VODI 0 91 155 229 140 135 70 0
ODI 0 19 73 157 121 129 113 0
CDI 0 19 29 115 125 248 579 4
VCDI 0 11 27 75 131 498 8031 4644
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13460 6718 547 533 99 48 19 0
OW 0 101 266 192 78 66 28 0
VODI 0 92 174 244 144 128 61 0
ODI 0 20 76 146 122 128 113 0
CDI 0 15 32 125 126 244 558 4
VCDI 0 14 28 80 136 498 8052 4644

Date: 2017-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13125 6686 942 585 188 27 11 0
OW 0 59 213 202 110 42 28 0
VODI 0 11 210 167 199 109 73 0
ODI 0 1 98 96 160 156 113 0
CDI 0 0 24 53 120 237 497 14
VCDI 0 0 4 43 122 483 7502 5449
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13125 6600 757 484 184 41 28 0
OW 0 82 245 177 87 37 27 0
VODI 0 55 250 185 189 117 88 0
ODI 0 15 146 137 145 116 143 0
CDI 0 5 55 73 118 199 449 20
VCDI 0 0 38 90 176 544 7489 5443

Date: 2017-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12774 6606 961 617 245 69 14 0
OW 0 51 225 197 131 73 23 0
VODI 0 22 234 172 175 148 84 0
ODI 0 4 64 102 115 159 163 0
CDI 0 3 19 56 102 217 661 38
VCDI 0 2 13 36 118 367 6702 6397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12774 6565 709 552 233 84 26 0
OW 0 48 237 162 97 74 35 0
VODI 0 7 355 201 166 154 92 0
ODI 0 17 82 114 121 143 173 0
CDI 0 31 57 68 98 204 645 49
VCDI 0 20 76 83 171 374 6676 6386

Date: 2017-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12614 6428 804 634 255 154 72 0
OW 0 22 139 173 102 65 69 0
VODI 0 11 155 224 223 188 120 0
ODI 0 19 34 100 134 227 169 0
CDI 0 1 3 38 77 259 675 42
VCDI 0 0 0 12 37 197 7629 6054
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12614 6418 739 577 220 152 105 0
OW 0 28 107 124 76 62 73 0
VODI 0 7 194 251 188 160 121 0
ODI 0 2 47 120 131 151 219 0
CDI 0 2 24 63 129 252 740 37
VCDI 0 24 24 46 84 313 7476 6059


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