Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2017-03-02

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13581 6558 993 402 141 43 9 0
OW 0 62 155 149 104 58 30 0
VODI 0 25 122 118 114 108 75 0
ODI 0 7 56 88 89 141 193 0
CDI 0 2 34 115 148 294 406 13
VCDI 0 0 42 92 215 884 7235 5258
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14138 6584 539 365 126 19 8 0
OW 0 82 198 162 105 29 13 0
VODI 0 18 128 180 158 95 60 1
ODI 0 0 46 131 152 199 261 36
CDI 0 0 22 79 221 359 682 78
VCDI 0 0 25 69 263 1009 7885 3634
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14005 6559 533 300 117 23 11 0
OW 0 80 149 187 108 55 35 0
VODI 0 32 82 185 158 140 97 0
ODI 0 7 43 114 149 238 230 1
CDI 0 5 20 73 163 339 882 1
VCDI 0 0 30 60 179 1054 8165 3550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14005 6570 543 311 121 27 13 0
OW 0 70 144 174 102 48 36 0
VODI 0 31 79 179 164 133 96 0
ODI 0 8 37 119 159 236 230 1
CDI 0 4 22 70 138 371 873 1
VCDI 0 0 32 66 190 1034 8172 3550

Date: 2017-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13471 6343 855 388 126 35 11 0
OW 0 7 129 169 96 39 26 0
VODI 0 2 64 186 155 100 51 0
ODI 0 0 32 135 173 231 150 0
CDI 0 0 6 77 198 462 773 18
VCDI 0 0 6 83 155 830 8657 3920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13471 6332 809 404 166 58 21 0
OW 0 15 143 138 98 61 36 0
VODI 0 4 72 163 134 148 90 0
ODI 0 1 37 118 141 176 182 0
CDI 0 0 17 81 159 382 857 32
VCDI 0 0 14 134 205 872 8482 3906

Date: 2017-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13526 6364 849 358 82 47 9 0
OW 0 37 109 121 87 54 34 0
VODI 0 9 65 134 89 103 67 0
ODI 0 5 23 94 115 186 170 0
CDI 0 1 22 81 168 415 525 1
VCDI 0 1 17 74 134 948 8880 4155
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13526 6336 822 345 105 67 33 0
OW 0 55 101 115 66 68 41 0
VODI 0 13 84 138 94 120 91 0
ODI 0 6 32 96 112 200 173 0
CDI 0 6 20 77 147 360 620 2
VCDI 0 1 26 91 151 938 8727 4154

Date: 2017-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13747 6222 781 294 74 30 7 0
OW 0 35 148 147 63 32 24 0
VODI 0 2 98 177 130 97 79 0
ODI 0 0 35 99 119 159 153 0
CDI 0 0 17 70 121 234 524 37
VCDI 0 0 7 25 115 543 8525 5189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13747 6182 736 315 94 51 25 0
OW 0 61 136 136 57 37 52 0
VODI 0 15 108 140 107 88 95 0
ODI 0 1 43 95 98 149 201 5
CDI 0 0 18 69 108 182 578 35
VCDI 0 0 45 57 158 588 8361 5186


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