Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-12-22

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16356 7846 679 257 140 87 110 0
OW 0 130 199 100 77 56 31 0
VODI 0 58 156 135 79 141 24 0
ODI 0 17 76 102 121 197 66 0
CDI 0 11 37 69 114 295 332 0
VCDI 0 0 23 75 192 382 6084 3305
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16653 7602 773 421 105 68 86 0
OW 0 124 169 168 88 26 32 0
VODI 0 43 147 227 107 111 56 0
ODI 0 29 40 161 131 153 136 0
CDI 0 19 17 72 115 264 378 4
VCDI 0 35 17 51 177 659 5886 2809
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16530 7625 1032 238 95 79 107 0
OW 0 257 297 156 43 17 49 0
VODI 0 151 293 223 114 77 38 0
ODI 0 35 154 175 140 123 84 0
CDI 0 4 129 175 144 125 299 3
VCDI 0 0 142 249 388 558 4838 2973
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16530 7666 1121 289 100 80 116 0
OW 0 219 234 150 47 21 38 0
VODI 0 150 264 201 125 85 41 0
ODI 0 32 161 158 138 117 89 0
CDI 0 5 121 164 131 131 320 2
VCDI 0 0 146 254 383 545 4811 2974

Date: 2016-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17147 7601 936 359 160 83 94 0
OW 0 171 188 103 49 57 30 0
VODI 0 169 218 207 109 73 61 0
ODI 0 107 155 254 110 74 100 0
CDI 0 36 108 125 128 115 287 26
VCDI 0 8 100 218 338 712 4745 2598
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17147 6987 677 256 118 61 85 0
OW 0 266 145 55 32 36 26 0
VODI 0 318 174 137 63 66 61 0
ODI 0 191 218 151 109 75 65 0
CDI 0 190 193 194 77 73 300 22
VCDI 0 140 298 473 495 803 4780 2602

Date: 2016-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16692 7729 746 366 94 53 70 0
OW 0 106 193 132 65 30 40 0
VODI 0 48 147 213 142 115 70 0
ODI 0 14 85 136 184 168 101 1
CDI 0 3 52 156 163 393 263 51
VCDI 0 0 44 131 217 677 5328 2941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16692 7406 435 240 69 38 69 0
OW 0 212 197 108 41 23 29 0
VODI 0 191 213 131 59 59 62 0
ODI 0 58 172 168 139 93 89 0
CDI 0 31 99 183 167 241 292 48
VCDI 0 2 151 304 390 982 5331 2945

Date: 2016-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16493 7783 498 239 120 46 63 0
OW 0 199 185 91 49 54 25 0
VODI 0 107 197 158 84 81 62 0
ODI 0 34 96 130 127 132 108 7
CDI 0 33 62 113 143 288 254 76
VCDI 0 19 49 127 204 1058 5156 3409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16493 7417 388 148 84 39 53 0
OW 0 265 136 70 55 44 31 0
VODI 0 239 176 125 92 63 63 0
ODI 0 117 130 145 84 117 128 1
CDI 0 82 108 170 137 217 428 8
VCDI 0 55 149 200 275 1179 4965 3483


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