Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-11-24

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20049 8113 748 209 72 60 10 0
OW 0 384 289 89 45 20 17 0
VODI 0 54 266 207 151 47 33 0
ODI 0 0 69 84 132 84 52 0
CDI 0 0 18 55 136 156 169 1
VCDI 0 0 4 21 92 330 2865 3028
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21336 7365 777 351 160 40 13 0
OW 39 82 189 166 45 12 6 0
VODI 12 19 49 130 85 44 14 0
ODI 1 2 12 49 116 140 67 0
CDI 0 1 3 22 71 190 328 3
VCDI 0 0 0 14 35 138 3852 2181
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19105 8649 980 373 181 56 4 0
OW 1 111 175 131 82 37 2 0
VODI 0 12 149 187 194 154 23 0
ODI 0 0 35 92 107 128 81 0
CDI 0 0 13 37 55 224 352 0
VCDI 0 0 9 10 31 163 3714 2502
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19105 8663 952 359 180 56 3 0
OW 1 91 170 105 57 26 3 0
VODI 0 18 167 159 135 101 20 0
ODI 0 0 51 145 175 182 72 0
CDI 0 0 12 48 69 220 338 0
VCDI 0 0 9 14 34 177 3740 2502

Date: 2016-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18060 8294 1024 713 190 178 28 0
OW 15 36 96 132 77 81 15 0
VODI 2 12 46 115 104 142 87 0
ODI 0 0 3 53 78 189 256 1
CDI 0 0 1 10 40 185 791 7
VCDI 0 0 0 1 6 158 2845 4088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18057 8296 986 661 182 189 32 0
OW 19 34 130 134 66 83 26 0
VODI 1 10 44 141 127 177 115 0
ODI 0 2 10 57 54 152 276 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 55 103 566 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 229 3007 4090

Date: 2016-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17635 8139 1362 592 179 68 20 0
OW 0 45 197 173 78 38 8 0
VODI 0 7 120 180 101 108 21 0
ODI 0 0 38 119 83 158 103 0
CDI 0 0 7 70 88 225 367 3
VCDI 0 0 0 9 47 377 4011 3383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17635 8119 1386 589 194 75 23 0
OW 0 47 176 198 93 75 7 0
VODI 0 20 106 206 104 184 28 0
ODI 0 5 36 77 73 210 178 0
CDI 0 0 20 52 57 145 508 9
VCDI 0 0 0 21 55 285 3786 3377

Date: 2016-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16825 8185 1289 591 217 162 17 0
OW 0 155 199 156 107 64 5 0
VODI 0 67 104 174 119 175 14 0
ODI 0 5 35 77 87 219 54 0
CDI 0 3 22 83 67 319 343 15
VCDI 0 0 0 21 28 455 4588 3113
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16825 8200 1346 638 244 184 17 0
OW 0 187 174 173 133 148 8 0
VODI 0 18 87 117 113 256 57 0
ODI 0 5 29 85 61 228 196 1
CDI 0 5 12 67 53 217 404 5
VCDI 0 0 1 22 21 361 4339 3122


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