Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2016-10-27
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2016-10-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23341 |
5507 |
670 |
277 |
72 |
7 |
10 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
7 |
70 |
65 |
92 |
26 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
5 |
38 |
74 |
99 |
75 |
13 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
5 |
44 |
74 |
99 |
42 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
16 |
89 |
136 |
171 |
2 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
151 |
3209 |
3647 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2016-10-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23578 |
5318 |
598 |
170 |
77 |
22 |
14 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
15 |
74 |
85 |
46 |
31 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
5 |
36 |
73 |
80 |
87 |
7 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
5 |
3 |
33 |
80 |
118 |
35 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
17 |
69 |
181 |
300 |
4 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
118 |
3099 |
3756 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2016-10-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23551 |
5483 |
489 |
157 |
56 |
49 |
12 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
36 |
121 |
64 |
51 |
39 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
8 |
61 |
76 |
85 |
88 |
15 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
12 |
54 |
59 |
107 |
66 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
3 |
21 |
84 |
177 |
249 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
39 |
268 |
3245 |
3322 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23551 |
5467 |
526 |
164 |
61 |
55 |
12 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
51 |
99 |
63 |
47 |
34 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
9 |
43 |
65 |
79 |
90 |
18 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
15 |
52 |
60 |
120 |
63 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
3 |
28 |
84 |
160 |
251 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
43 |
269 |
3244 |
3322 |
|
Date: 2016-10-31:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23013 |
5609 |
600 |
78 |
41 |
37 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
5 |
178 |
177 |
129 |
36 |
13 |
2 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
66 |
99 |
229 |
103 |
33 |
5 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
18 |
82 |
93 |
93 |
41 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
2 |
25 |
103 |
163 |
271 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
81 |
940 |
4969 |
805 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23017 |
5677 |
540 |
100 |
47 |
40 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
1 |
116 |
175 |
98 |
35 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
53 |
105 |
158 |
80 |
24 |
5 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
9 |
57 |
84 |
62 |
73 |
41 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
19 |
88 |
92 |
109 |
167 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
141 |
1023 |
5072 |
805 |
|
Date: 2016-11-02:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
21160 |
7147 |
707 |
156 |
49 |
67 |
21 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
79 |
230 |
135 |
65 |
30 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
12 |
109 |
206 |
143 |
58 |
19 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
23 |
57 |
86 |
116 |
59 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
26 |
62 |
173 |
348 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
47 |
235 |
3810 |
2709 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
21160 |
7056 |
709 |
187 |
60 |
76 |
21 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
124 |
157 |
151 |
57 |
32 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
51 |
123 |
111 |
136 |
61 |
13 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
6 |
50 |
75 |
62 |
76 |
58 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
27 |
45 |
76 |
142 |
276 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
16 |
61 |
292 |
3889 |
2709 |
|
Date: 2016-11-04:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20921 |
7152 |
629 |
132 |
51 |
42 |
32 |
0 |
| OW |
4 |
143 |
252 |
138 |
63 |
23 |
9 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
10 |
153 |
184 |
146 |
67 |
39 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
39 |
52 |
150 |
125 |
75 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
20 |
31 |
68 |
148 |
372 |
20 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
41 |
224 |
3906 |
2691 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20921 |
7099 |
702 |
208 |
68 |
50 |
33 |
0 |
| OW |
4 |
128 |
169 |
135 |
67 |
29 |
22 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
65 |
124 |
96 |
192 |
62 |
41 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
13 |
53 |
48 |
79 |
98 |
88 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
40 |
35 |
43 |
142 |
279 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
19 |
70 |
248 |
3970 |
2711 |
|
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