Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-10-27

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23341 5507 670 277 72 7 10 0
OW 0 7 70 65 92 26 1 0
VODI 0 5 38 74 99 75 13 0
ODI 0 2 5 44 74 99 42 0
CDI 0 0 3 16 89 136 171 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 151 3209 3647
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23578 5318 598 170 77 22 14 0
OW 0 15 74 85 46 31 6 0
VODI 0 5 36 73 80 87 7 0
ODI 0 5 3 33 80 118 35 0
CDI 0 0 7 17 69 181 300 4
VCDI 0 0 0 3 9 118 3099 3756
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23551 5483 489 157 56 49 12 0
OW 0 36 121 64 51 39 6 0
VODI 0 8 61 76 85 88 15 0
ODI 0 2 12 54 59 107 66 0
CDI 0 1 3 21 84 177 249 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 39 268 3245 3322
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23551 5467 526 164 61 55 12 0
OW 0 51 99 63 47 34 5 0
VODI 0 9 43 65 79 90 18 0
ODI 0 2 15 52 60 120 63 0
CDI 0 1 3 28 84 160 251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 43 269 3244 3322

Date: 2016-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23013 5609 600 78 41 37 4 0
OW 5 178 177 129 36 13 2 0
VODI 0 66 99 229 103 33 5 0
ODI 0 2 18 82 93 93 41 0
CDI 0 1 2 25 103 163 271 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 81 940 4969 805
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23017 5677 540 100 47 40 5 0
OW 1 116 175 98 35 10 2 0
VODI 0 53 105 158 80 24 5 0
ODI 0 9 57 84 62 73 41 0
CDI 0 1 19 88 92 109 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 141 1023 5072 805

Date: 2016-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21160 7147 707 156 49 67 21 0
OW 0 79 230 135 65 30 4 0
VODI 0 12 109 206 143 58 19 0
ODI 0 0 23 57 86 116 59 0
CDI 0 0 6 26 62 173 348 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 47 235 3810 2709
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21160 7056 709 187 60 76 21 0
OW 0 124 157 151 57 32 4 0
VODI 0 51 123 111 136 61 13 0
ODI 0 6 50 75 62 76 58 0
CDI 0 1 27 45 76 142 276 0
VCDI 0 0 9 16 61 292 3889 2709

Date: 2016-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20921 7152 629 132 51 42 32 0
OW 4 143 252 138 63 23 9 0
VODI 0 10 153 184 146 67 39 0
ODI 0 0 39 52 150 125 75 0
CDI 0 0 20 31 68 148 372 20
VCDI 0 0 3 4 41 224 3906 2691
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20921 7099 702 208 68 50 33 0
OW 4 128 169 135 67 29 22 0
VODI 0 65 124 96 192 62 41 0
ODI 0 13 53 48 79 98 88 0
CDI 0 0 40 35 43 142 279 0
VCDI 0 0 8 19 70 248 3970 2711


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