Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-08-25

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24559 5009 1095 638 292 48 10 0
OW 0 0 18 71 162 80 9 0
VODI 0 0 2 32 251 261 38 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 105 327 474 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 218 2220 69
VCDI 0 0 0 3 1 7 640 1488
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24279 4953 1233 725 299 38 0 0
OW 0 0 15 95 159 39 4 0
VODI 0 0 3 84 203 181 28 0
ODI 0 0 3 13 111 423 589 0
CDI 0 0 5 12 35 137 2301 142
VCDI 0 0 0 1 3 6 991 1049
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24201 4969 1113 842 264 10 0 0
OW 0 1 6 128 137 39 3 0
VODI 0 0 0 87 213 99 19 0
ODI 0 0 1 16 187 655 302 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 33 484 2103 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 6 1162 1056
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24201 4970 1115 848 274 12 0 0
OW 0 0 4 119 105 34 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 89 202 97 21 0
ODI 0 0 1 18 209 594 225 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 44 550 2251 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 6 1090 1062

Date: 2016-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24177 4998 1163 693 183 49 1 0
OW 0 11 8 102 147 27 4 0
VODI 0 13 2 77 210 239 132 0
ODI 0 67 9 43 152 530 1038 0
CDI 0 60 0 9 20 83 1438 0
VCDI 0 39 7 6 9 10 1605 798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24177 5004 1150 652 189 51 1 0
OW 0 10 19 122 90 31 3 0
VODI 0 14 3 85 167 91 39 0
ODI 0 35 10 51 178 318 523 0
CDI 0 76 0 14 86 437 1907 0
VCDI 0 49 7 6 11 10 1745 798

Date: 2016-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24320 5075 988 746 109 7 0 0
OW 0 17 22 127 147 30 1 0
VODI 0 11 7 72 309 179 18 0
ODI 0 56 8 21 195 823 684 0
CDI 0 46 0 12 26 143 1345 0
VCDI 0 52 7 6 10 9 1733 798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24320 5069 977 691 121 8 0 0
OW 0 22 27 118 79 36 3 0
VODI 0 16 14 105 180 70 28 0
ODI 0 34 7 46 293 580 185 0
CDI 0 54 0 18 111 486 1661 0
VCDI 0 62 7 6 12 11 1904 798

Date: 2016-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24028 4980 1257 899 106 15 1 0
OW 0 19 31 176 133 35 6 0
VODI 0 10 6 59 234 243 48 0
ODI 0 4 7 18 136 865 582 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 31 212 1443 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2 5 1327 1228
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24028 4981 1242 859 90 15 5 0
OW 0 24 36 137 81 28 7 0
VODI 0 7 18 116 175 93 39 0
ODI 0 1 5 31 220 596 213 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 74 593 1614 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2 50 1529 1228


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