Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-07-07

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20028 7919 836 937 319 86 181 13
OW 0 22 41 157 255 51 62 0
VODI 0 1 13 83 354 216 163 4
ODI 0 0 2 21 201 247 318 11
CDI 0 0 1 6 17 151 1638 519
VCDI 0 0 0 2 2 1 625 2656
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20694 7926 886 535 232 105 174 12
OW 0 66 58 91 94 92 49 0
VODI 0 9 31 92 175 242 171 3
ODI 0 1 16 27 101 228 558 11
CDI 0 1 4 2 13 65 1786 439
VCDI 0 0 2 0 0 0 379 2789
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21636 6990 683 859 277 44 172 12
OW 0 16 33 112 161 86 78 0
VODI 0 7 15 78 183 308 234 2
ODI 0 1 6 28 57 187 565 1
CDI 0 0 1 2 4 57 1745 695
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 0 263 2560
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21636 6997 691 898 344 59 183 12
OW 0 9 24 72 96 86 84 0
VODI 0 7 15 82 185 307 283 2
ODI 0 1 6 25 46 156 493 1
CDI 0 0 2 2 11 74 1680 772
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 0 334 2483

Date: 2016-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24142 5572 541 259 100 25 119 13
OW 0 14 76 171 93 25 45 0
VODI 0 0 25 152 301 118 87 2
ODI 0 0 1 42 181 299 263 1
CDI 0 0 0 5 15 102 2183 1227
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 148 1812
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24142 5575 563 328 141 34 136 13
OW 0 11 61 147 159 77 79 0
VODI 0 0 18 115 280 206 230 2
ODI 0 0 1 39 88 157 429 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 95 1788 1219
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 183 1820

Date: 2016-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23639 6334 556 173 63 29 142 13
OW 0 23 120 109 83 33 81 0
VODI 0 0 34 86 151 232 274 2
ODI 0 1 4 13 28 111 533 1
CDI 0 0 2 2 12 24 2129 1850
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 1208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23639 6310 540 192 90 53 164 13
OW 0 36 117 108 80 127 178 0
VODI 0 12 52 73 114 130 379 2
ODI 0 0 7 9 51 78 600 1
CDI 0 0 0 1 2 41 1813 1775
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 89 1283

Date: 2016-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24171 5578 759 251 83 51 136 13
OW 0 6 124 118 106 102 101 0
VODI 0 2 18 54 98 208 371 2
ODI 0 0 9 6 26 87 664 4
CDI 0 0 1 2 9 58 1731 2879
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 318
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24171 5549 727 248 102 84 224 13
OW 0 33 111 82 100 132 233 0
VODI 0 4 64 75 78 118 350 2
ODI 0 0 9 26 30 132 710 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 40 1473 2991
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 208


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