Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-06-23

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17617 6534 1665 1160 802 320 153 10
OW 0 0 57 237 301 219 109 0
VODI 0 4 25 83 233 392 341 2
ODI 0 1 3 30 86 206 536 1
CDI 0 0 0 19 38 194 1412 8
VCDI 0 0 0 2 6 18 1802 3533
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18452 7047 1103 1429 610 144 118 9
OW 0 5 40 328 216 115 40 0
VODI 0 5 8 156 232 397 97 2
ODI 0 0 2 30 88 519 315 7
CDI 0 0 0 10 49 454 859 48
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 30 1832 3359
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18185 7011 1768 1288 611 198 133 9
OW 0 3 76 207 231 178 59 0
VODI 0 3 17 96 208 424 172 2
ODI 0 0 0 19 83 288 440 4
CDI 0 0 0 5 58 276 1035 168
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 4 1606 3289
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18185 7012 1784 1334 663 234 148 9
OW 0 4 57 158 169 152 46 0
VODI 0 1 20 100 209 394 179 2
ODI 0 0 0 17 93 318 458 2
CDI 0 0 0 6 58 262 1057 144
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 8 1557 3315

Date: 2016-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19151 7918 1051 636 510 236 199 13
OW 0 33 63 184 145 79 130 0
VODI 0 1 19 71 148 160 304 2
ODI 0 0 1 6 133 232 739 1
CDI 0 0 2 1 17 83 1387 510
VCDI 0 0 0 2 2 2 847 3141
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19151 7867 1029 646 535 253 251 13
OW 0 64 78 140 144 85 158 0
VODI 0 21 24 105 155 206 524 2
ODI 0 0 3 6 82 112 485 8
CDI 0 0 2 1 37 134 1639 415
VCDI 0 0 0 2 2 2 549 3229

Date: 2016-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19454 7696 1181 1157 285 69 156 13
OW 0 1 85 168 215 82 56 0
VODI 0 1 14 99 278 252 137 2
ODI 0 0 1 31 201 324 322 1
CDI 0 0 0 4 44 159 1511 390
VCDI 0 0 0 2 2 1 816 2949
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19454 7671 1147 1101 303 98 199 13
OW 0 22 95 181 235 111 71 0
VODI 0 5 35 122 278 280 257 2
ODI 0 0 4 40 115 170 284 1
CDI 0 0 0 16 92 227 1852 395
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2 1 335 2944

Date: 2016-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20028 7919 836 937 319 86 181 13
OW 0 22 41 157 255 51 62 0
VODI 0 1 13 83 354 216 163 4
ODI 0 0 2 21 201 247 318 11
CDI 0 0 1 6 17 151 1638 519
VCDI 0 0 0 2 2 1 625 2656
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20028 7889 817 879 380 89 223 13
OW 0 49 51 170 239 94 64 0
VODI 0 4 20 109 296 198 218 2
ODI 0 0 4 33 156 149 331 7
CDI 0 0 1 14 75 221 2008 798
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2 1 143 2383


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