Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-03-10

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14669 6470 514 145 21 1 0 0
OW 0 351 221 136 66 19 1 0
VODI 0 229 215 200 175 40 16 0
ODI 0 57 152 201 313 108 119 1
CDI 0 21 92 199 329 280 660 35
VCDI 0 28 107 144 315 577 5636 5296
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14525 6931 764 179 46 5 2 0
OW 0 274 250 242 109 42 4 0
VODI 0 109 196 268 412 163 52 0
ODI 0 12 98 219 347 242 249 7
CDI 0 16 36 109 245 418 794 16
VCDI 0 1 31 57 122 348 6169 4050
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14836 6530 562 182 58 12 1 0
OW 0 364 304 185 102 52 14 0
VODI 0 198 226 230 313 183 78 0
ODI 0 44 127 160 254 351 228 0
CDI 0 33 71 146 167 402 753 27
VCDI 0 7 41 123 141 356 6484 3814
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14836 6490 594 206 93 26 2 0
OW 0 345 205 157 114 58 14 0
VODI 0 273 295 243 288 211 76 0
ODI 0 38 136 159 228 304 221 0
CDI 0 23 67 153 163 395 774 40
VCDI 0 7 34 108 149 362 6471 3801

Date: 2016-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15511 6879 324 167 80 22 1 9
OW 0 519 159 192 117 46 9 58
VODI 0 182 150 327 470 196 148 57
ODI 0 19 33 136 206 167 441 48
CDI 0 1 10 98 127 290 1113 94
VCDI 0 1 5 51 156 434 4507 4599
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15508 6197 256 135 48 23 5 12
OW 3 505 101 113 108 35 4 33
VODI 0 606 123 188 266 119 58 76
ODI 0 184 115 234 266 142 277 24
CDI 0 88 50 150 199 213 771 75
VCDI 0 21 36 151 269 623 5104 4645

Date: 2016-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14539 6404 725 272 119 12 2 0
OW 0 328 213 198 94 65 12 0
VODI 0 396 225 295 171 136 48 0
ODI 0 55 76 251 308 231 230 7
CDI 0 82 64 180 449 439 766 60
VCDI 0 0 8 58 192 554 5877 4018
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14539 6359 673 207 110 29 2 0
OW 0 372 196 148 92 44 8 0
VODI 0 314 251 331 266 141 32 0
ODI 0 120 88 246 328 189 164 3
CDI 0 74 72 217 309 405 605 33
VCDI 0 26 31 105 228 629 6124 4049

Date: 2016-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13788 6471 795 262 95 19 0 0
OW 0 209 197 176 81 39 10 0
VODI 0 163 185 283 165 72 66 0
ODI 0 95 129 223 189 152 177 0
CDI 0 106 131 189 301 185 364 12
VCDI 0 71 143 290 386 895 6362 4683
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13788 6470 746 264 141 17 0 0
OW 0 266 235 123 108 23 13 0
VODI 0 150 238 350 259 116 32 0
ODI 0 86 131 268 250 259 200 31
CDI 0 95 93 188 257 350 361 81
VCDI 0 48 137 230 202 597 6373 4583


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