Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-02-18

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14876 5948 798 295 126 27 9 0
OW 0 259 177 171 147 67 29 0
VODI 0 331 118 143 165 124 120 0
ODI 0 113 137 109 96 128 165 26
CDI 0 18 116 180 211 228 559 68
VCDI 0 19 110 203 360 848 5787 4748
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13962 6830 1267 285 58 21 11 0
OW 0 102 254 279 134 29 18 0
VODI 0 64 199 406 337 140 36 0
ODI 0 14 94 249 290 232 78 0
CDI 0 4 43 142 226 285 369 24
VCDI 0 66 40 136 329 916 6460 3730
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14749 6702 704 171 59 12 20 0
OW 0 240 187 123 112 34 17 0
VODI 0 163 265 223 208 144 42 0
ODI 0 43 191 201 240 234 155 0
CDI 0 16 127 217 196 274 512 18
VCDI 0 21 192 293 465 611 5761 4217
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14749 6756 713 195 90 26 18 0
OW 0 196 234 141 115 34 17 0
VODI 0 127 199 192 196 169 55 0
ODI 0 60 185 179 215 186 164 0
CDI 0 23 128 209 196 267 481 17
VCDI 0 23 207 312 468 627 5772 4218

Date: 2016-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14897 6989 885 198 39 9 6 0
OW 0 441 370 262 109 43 10 0
VODI 0 33 207 335 327 211 56 0
ODI 0 11 114 162 224 351 156 18
CDI 0 16 69 148 195 348 510 66
VCDI 0 13 81 129 216 531 6161 3213
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14897 6621 713 182 55 19 15 0
OW 0 280 188 139 76 52 33 0
VODI 0 288 203 219 228 131 48 0
ODI 0 123 156 154 176 255 126 3
CDI 0 70 191 174 124 251 285 71
VCDI 0 121 275 366 451 785 6392 3223

Date: 2016-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14756 6488 963 114 32 14 9 0
OW 0 364 484 306 91 40 8 0
VODI 0 172 251 411 272 205 62 0
ODI 0 21 87 208 267 297 201 1
CDI 0 9 60 175 245 465 621 7
VCDI 0 10 120 166 260 553 5364 3980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14756 6441 847 112 52 18 17 0
OW 0 242 296 121 54 50 12 0
VODI 0 155 309 223 162 123 57 0
ODI 0 58 179 230 191 263 201 0
CDI 0 39 82 337 210 361 475 8
VCDI 0 129 252 357 498 759 5503 3980

Date: 2016-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14907 6427 529 120 31 3 4 0
OW 0 373 269 148 80 22 9 0
VODI 0 182 300 518 306 140 38 0
ODI 0 79 114 254 353 277 237 0
CDI 0 16 101 153 307 325 681 2
VCDI 0 3 100 259 322 491 5990 3689
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14907 6276 516 120 45 15 18 0
OW 0 329 146 108 68 26 12 0
VODI 0 222 231 196 178 124 54 0
ODI 0 127 149 206 192 201 266 0
CDI 0 65 108 269 255 275 602 0
VCDI 0 61 263 553 661 617 6007 3691


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