Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-01-28

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13665 6564 1114 220 60 22 28 0
OW 2 53 200 144 101 33 18 0
VODI 1 45 166 159 139 101 56 0
ODI 0 31 84 116 200 155 100 0
CDI 0 18 70 98 178 380 471 44
VCDI 0 1 65 93 181 667 7145 5171
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15016 6598 442 119 39 18 15 0
OW 16 386 210 130 64 20 14 0
VODI 1 176 238 212 190 110 41 0
ODI 0 24 75 104 177 232 189 4
CDI 0 5 29 95 169 327 679 75
VCDI 0 13 37 64 127 324 7086 4269
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14777 6539 564 137 33 21 9 0
OW 18 162 233 148 39 28 8 0
VODI 0 165 168 242 205 96 33 0
ODI 0 102 170 191 199 271 216 5
CDI 0 6 61 144 187 341 584 35
VCDI 0 0 47 111 206 523 7139 3996
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14783 6514 618 156 34 22 9 0
OW 12 181 179 153 41 21 6 0
VODI 0 144 163 214 232 136 35 0
ODI 0 124 165 185 163 259 213 7
CDI 0 10 69 151 171 307 574 31
VCDI 0 1 49 114 228 535 7152 3998

Date: 2016-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15028 6547 801 189 35 12 8 0
OW 7 175 229 193 109 43 30 0
VODI 0 163 305 324 190 162 84 0
ODI 0 12 134 151 169 200 249 8
CDI 0 8 48 172 188 323 723 69
VCDI 0 1 16 126 245 478 6318 3887
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15021 6113 611 86 17 6 3 0
OW 14 327 144 97 51 14 12 0
VODI 0 171 198 219 102 60 41 0
ODI 0 85 140 179 154 163 150 6
CDI 0 90 117 142 129 224 489 53
VCDI 0 120 323 432 483 751 6717 3905

Date: 2016-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15228 6329 610 138 61 24 1 0
OW 3 251 165 151 62 30 15 0
VODI 0 213 127 208 164 108 45 0
ODI 0 143 127 125 133 151 188 0
CDI 0 78 171 216 204 231 528 13
VCDI 0 33 120 499 537 614 6548 3567
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15213 5764 464 81 37 10 0 0
OW 15 361 129 83 41 26 10 0
VODI 3 286 133 161 94 62 41 0
ODI 0 155 109 122 118 96 144 0
CDI 0 142 79 155 147 181 428 10
VCDI 0 339 406 735 724 783 6702 3570

Date: 2016-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15310 6103 490 111 45 10 10 0
OW 0 275 154 143 35 15 12 0
VODI 0 202 147 210 151 42 25 0
ODI 0 165 79 133 181 174 91 0
CDI 0 93 117 147 196 309 563 19
VCDI 0 70 189 486 608 907 6338 3804
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15287 5579 362 66 32 8 8 0
OW 17 303 115 83 21 5 4 0
VODI 6 367 132 154 100 32 18 0
ODI 0 153 108 134 153 79 69 0
CDI 0 137 78 152 145 239 369 16
VCDI 0 369 381 641 765 1094 6571 3807


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