Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2016-01-21
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2016-01-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14346 |
6452 |
745 |
160 |
73 |
24 |
18 |
0 |
| OW |
5 |
83 |
255 |
98 |
86 |
22 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
18 |
182 |
176 |
142 |
90 |
24 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
14 |
80 |
118 |
160 |
213 |
128 |
7 |
| CDI |
0 |
9 |
59 |
112 |
210 |
470 |
710 |
61 |
| VCDI |
0 |
3 |
83 |
125 |
179 |
388 |
6876 |
5145 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2016-01-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14515 |
6613 |
551 |
182 |
56 |
17 |
16 |
0 |
| OW |
1 |
157 |
233 |
112 |
61 |
35 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
112 |
210 |
234 |
126 |
102 |
26 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
21 |
63 |
146 |
208 |
219 |
122 |
5 |
| CDI |
0 |
19 |
17 |
53 |
154 |
368 |
497 |
100 |
| VCDI |
0 |
48 |
63 |
70 |
129 |
498 |
7231 |
4762 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2016-01-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
13752 |
6452 |
955 |
276 |
145 |
80 |
23 |
0 |
| OW |
2 |
62 |
197 |
119 |
67 |
120 |
13 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
46 |
125 |
151 |
106 |
191 |
46 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
31 |
77 |
117 |
143 |
287 |
70 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
6 |
54 |
92 |
137 |
482 |
499 |
41 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
28 |
98 |
139 |
731 |
6693 |
5505 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
13753 |
6450 |
982 |
284 |
160 |
84 |
21 |
0 |
| OW |
1 |
75 |
179 |
121 |
56 |
114 |
14 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
37 |
131 |
151 |
97 |
172 |
48 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
33 |
59 |
107 |
145 |
290 |
64 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
53 |
89 |
145 |
484 |
503 |
36 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
32 |
101 |
134 |
747 |
6694 |
5510 |
|
Date: 2016-01-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14874 |
6784 |
412 |
129 |
44 |
24 |
15 |
0 |
| OW |
27 |
305 |
251 |
166 |
84 |
42 |
16 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
64 |
153 |
167 |
236 |
156 |
48 |
1 |
| ODI |
0 |
9 |
60 |
91 |
208 |
253 |
209 |
6 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
12 |
59 |
136 |
308 |
736 |
18 |
| VCDI |
0 |
2 |
11 |
49 |
75 |
308 |
7757 |
3853 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14900 |
6398 |
313 |
94 |
38 |
28 |
19 |
0 |
| OW |
1 |
284 |
128 |
83 |
49 |
22 |
22 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
243 |
146 |
140 |
112 |
68 |
41 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
137 |
120 |
99 |
169 |
151 |
91 |
9 |
| CDI |
0 |
58 |
109 |
127 |
207 |
298 |
555 |
22 |
| VCDI |
0 |
44 |
83 |
118 |
208 |
524 |
8053 |
3847 |
|
Date: 2016-01-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14610 |
6642 |
661 |
131 |
39 |
17 |
14 |
0 |
| OW |
18 |
235 |
257 |
119 |
61 |
20 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
258 |
282 |
237 |
148 |
86 |
45 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
35 |
147 |
183 |
173 |
226 |
197 |
3 |
| CDI |
0 |
18 |
49 |
148 |
209 |
261 |
661 |
42 |
| VCDI |
0 |
15 |
54 |
95 |
200 |
402 |
7193 |
3957 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14618 |
6441 |
540 |
110 |
35 |
17 |
25 |
0 |
| OW |
10 |
215 |
211 |
91 |
39 |
24 |
15 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
188 |
217 |
146 |
118 |
31 |
42 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
159 |
122 |
137 |
128 |
174 |
112 |
6 |
| CDI |
0 |
112 |
174 |
150 |
175 |
261 |
620 |
39 |
| VCDI |
0 |
88 |
186 |
279 |
335 |
505 |
7306 |
3957 |
|
Date: 2016-01-29:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14825 |
6392 |
655 |
110 |
28 |
10 |
12 |
0 |
| OW |
6 |
184 |
307 |
102 |
36 |
20 |
9 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
90 |
221 |
244 |
121 |
87 |
35 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
92 |
155 |
230 |
210 |
206 |
177 |
6 |
| CDI |
0 |
13 |
119 |
179 |
174 |
297 |
588 |
32 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
41 |
201 |
336 |
549 |
7101 |
3959 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14826 |
6154 |
539 |
82 |
30 |
12 |
20 |
0 |
| OW |
4 |
262 |
243 |
60 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
127 |
285 |
161 |
60 |
41 |
30 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
63 |
138 |
201 |
139 |
120 |
138 |
9 |
| CDI |
0 |
91 |
120 |
225 |
210 |
249 |
476 |
32 |
| VCDI |
0 |
74 |
173 |
337 |
450 |
731 |
7242 |
3956 |
|
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