Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-01-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15277 6489 671 123 19 7 2 0
OW 0 258 287 127 51 8 6 0
VODI 0 241 477 359 247 147 15 0
ODI 0 96 178 233 398 339 170 0
CDI 0 16 69 112 192 515 781 1
VCDI 0 10 54 80 144 522 5169 4269
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14833 6533 714 164 55 21 4 0
OW 9 143 252 85 49 29 9 0
VODI 0 61 214 191 119 72 20 0
ODI 0 9 105 163 252 340 92 0
CDI 0 3 39 84 236 698 614 17
VCDI 0 2 36 50 135 766 7441 3500
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14521 6416 726 153 63 17 14 0
OW 3 75 288 91 80 18 9 0
VODI 0 36 173 174 138 73 16 0
ODI 0 19 118 125 169 205 90 1
CDI 0 4 98 112 169 542 629 14
VCDI 0 3 90 101 146 417 7122 4901
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14520 6404 756 148 70 17 15 0
OW 4 83 264 95 74 20 8 0
VODI 0 42 179 184 146 74 15 0
ODI 0 16 112 131 161 215 102 0
CDI 0 5 89 104 177 517 623 20
VCDI 0 3 93 94 137 429 7117 4896

Date: 2016-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14598 6659 596 150 51 15 10 0
OW 7 139 256 147 92 22 7 0
VODI 0 54 132 231 203 111 28 0
ODI 0 22 35 100 195 253 180 6
CDI 0 24 12 42 148 371 635 86
VCDI 0 33 38 76 115 420 7196 4664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14591 6427 457 137 54 17 16 0
OW 14 201 183 91 70 12 6 0
VODI 0 111 217 150 116 60 29 0
ODI 0 52 91 144 152 137 114 7
CDI 0 46 57 108 210 311 527 85
VCDI 0 94 64 116 202 655 7364 4664

Date: 2016-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13798 6748 923 214 60 35 14 0
OW 1 98 213 147 72 52 11 0
VODI 1 82 151 179 151 138 29 0
ODI 0 82 92 168 175 199 79 7
CDI 0 21 32 112 203 378 405 100
VCDI 0 25 89 85 199 623 6857 5111
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13787 6568 847 181 59 35 12 0
OW 12 153 208 133 57 37 15 0
VODI 1 106 152 178 149 87 41 0
ODI 0 64 96 125 123 142 129 15
CDI 0 58 53 122 156 270 391 114
VCDI 0 107 144 166 316 854 6807 5089

Date: 2016-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13665 6564 1114 220 60 22 28 0
OW 2 53 200 144 101 33 18 0
VODI 1 45 166 159 139 101 56 0
ODI 0 31 84 116 200 155 100 0
CDI 0 18 70 98 178 380 471 44
VCDI 0 1 65 93 181 667 7145 5171
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13648 6379 1017 189 60 36 24 0
OW 13 142 194 124 54 39 25 0
VODI 7 88 214 178 143 62 49 0
ODI 0 30 78 107 123 154 108 8
CDI 0 25 42 77 157 293 534 83
VCDI 0 48 154 155 322 774 7078 5124


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