Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2016-01-07

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2016-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15950 6839 728 134 64 10 3 0
OW 0 532 529 332 155 20 3 0
VODI 0 109 370 371 294 141 26 0
ODI 0 9 50 143 263 360 215 0
CDI 0 2 22 80 175 359 728 0
VCDI 0 0 35 52 177 346 4716 3817
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15353 6614 669 97 51 6 2 0
OW 0 361 408 156 90 27 4 0
VODI 0 186 493 387 450 181 23 0
ODI 0 23 168 177 336 434 167 0
CDI 0 5 56 86 204 499 654 5
VCDI 0 7 48 46 154 366 5306 3860
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15353 6737 756 126 63 13 1 0
OW 0 303 356 149 95 30 5 0
VODI 0 121 460 368 430 201 27 0
ODI 0 23 165 172 317 404 216 0
CDI 0 6 54 85 222 483 641 5
VCDI 0 6 51 49 158 382 5266 3860

Date: 2016-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15119 6568 573 134 49 11 4 0
OW 19 181 267 113 51 35 4 0
VODI 0 95 253 245 188 90 24 0
ODI 0 45 60 129 398 421 143 0
CDI 0 83 24 59 135 590 716 17
VCDI 0 131 26 47 80 717 6756 3559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15138 6445 513 135 60 55 16 0
OW 0 190 182 73 38 32 11 0
VODI 0 105 232 179 173 66 33 0
ODI 0 94 158 130 257 248 107 0
CDI 0 147 68 102 224 508 546 19
VCDI 0 122 50 108 149 955 6934 3557

Date: 2016-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14629 6469 764 153 55 13 7 0
OW 10 75 269 118 64 11 8 0
VODI 0 58 189 159 136 75 11 0
ODI 0 34 110 138 129 258 76 0
CDI 0 4 63 106 196 743 531 2
VCDI 0 3 53 43 121 718 7350 4208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14637 6434 760 181 73 18 16 0
OW 2 68 218 93 59 24 13 0
VODI 0 44 176 135 116 106 21 0
ODI 0 44 85 101 129 294 105 0
CDI 0 31 100 113 173 603 612 0
VCDI 0 22 109 94 151 773 7216 4210

Date: 2016-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14346 6452 745 160 73 24 18 0
OW 5 83 255 98 86 22 10 0
VODI 0 18 182 176 142 90 24 0
ODI 0 14 80 118 160 213 128 7
CDI 0 9 59 112 210 470 710 61
VCDI 0 3 83 125 179 388 6876 5145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14351 6423 774 214 111 40 24 0
OW 0 92 169 80 90 33 21 0
VODI 0 35 156 106 109 119 42 0
ODI 0 15 125 104 105 193 117 33
CDI 0 11 113 155 206 322 592 101
VCDI 0 3 67 130 229 500 6970 5079


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