Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2015-09-03

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23211 5565 1061 598 249 33 0 0
OW 0 17 55 132 153 45 8 0
VODI 0 11 38 102 170 88 33 0
ODI 0 1 31 43 69 76 76 0
CDI 0 0 7 41 68 103 463 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 30 82 2583 1822
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23776 5377 953 426 102 8 0 0
OW 0 7 74 114 165 17 3 0
VODI 0 4 43 130 180 56 13 0
ODI 0 1 8 60 110 83 31 0
CDI 0 0 3 29 86 158 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 38 123 2769 1894
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23932 5203 924 290 140 29 0 0
OW 0 20 80 96 150 40 3 0
VODI 0 4 62 114 134 80 5 0
ODI 0 0 32 51 123 87 23 0
CDI 0 0 14 48 92 165 318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 45 84 2615 2062
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23932 5198 925 318 188 38 0 0
OW 0 23 82 74 126 45 4 0
VODI 0 6 68 106 116 67 6 0
ODI 0 0 24 57 109 88 27 0
CDI 0 0 13 44 99 160 298 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 46 87 2629 2062

Date: 2015-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24545 4633 757 349 171 31 0 0
OW 0 27 74 109 113 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 97 199 114 7 0
ODI 0 0 9 49 131 150 31 0
CDI 0 0 1 11 41 129 367 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 19 81 2343 2421
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24545 4593 661 334 178 31 0 0
OW 0 48 73 78 153 50 2 0
VODI 0 16 77 90 147 94 3 0
ODI 0 3 39 70 97 136 26 0
CDI 0 0 22 43 73 162 350 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 26 58 2367 2421

Date: 2015-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24000 5058 841 389 203 16 0 0
OW 0 44 69 79 115 29 0 0
VODI 0 10 45 88 182 74 1 0
ODI 0 4 17 62 188 113 8 0
CDI 0 0 5 19 68 151 351 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 122 2418 2288
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24000 4976 753 359 172 15 0 0
OW 0 64 63 64 121 36 0 0
VODI 0 43 60 83 221 80 5 0
ODI 0 18 57 57 136 110 22 0
CDI 0 15 44 74 102 152 308 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 112 2443 2288

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24255 5120 467 300 133 58 0 0
OW 0 94 45 52 79 48 0 0
VODI 0 31 45 47 154 91 2 0
ODI 0 3 19 52 179 158 11 0
CDI 0 0 4 22 96 255 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 155 2475 2341
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24255 4978 434 281 116 42 0 0
OW 0 107 35 45 68 63 0 0
VODI 0 91 33 43 189 97 2 0
ODI 0 44 38 50 134 162 15 0
CDI 0 28 40 54 132 256 234 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 145 2501 2341


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