Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2015-07-23

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18335 7897 1370 488 248 80 66 5
OW 0 19 100 198 84 44 63 0
VODI 0 0 42 153 242 163 146 0
ODI 0 0 2 102 213 253 577 1
CDI 0 0 0 43 154 252 1926 1299
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 30 899 1565
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18997 8183 1017 420 182 87 34 4
OW 0 22 89 106 142 42 45 0
VODI 0 9 35 65 218 158 143 0
ODI 0 0 10 21 114 235 628 1
CDI 0 0 0 14 19 61 1681 3255
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 534 495
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19419 8297 555 390 161 57 90 4
OW 0 64 48 147 92 52 70 0
VODI 0 31 34 118 203 118 201 0
ODI 0 7 7 39 150 186 640 1
CDI 0 1 1 25 39 72 1801 2901
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 282 762
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19419 8317 557 411 174 66 102 4
OW 0 50 54 134 89 41 76 0
VODI 0 26 25 117 206 135 203 0
ODI 0 7 8 33 132 166 488 1
CDI 0 0 1 24 44 77 2005 2952
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 210 711

Date: 2015-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19692 7708 944 465 239 101 46 0
OW 0 9 111 139 98 91 59 0
VODI 0 0 33 99 177 292 183 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 41 334 572 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 13 24 1837 2403
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 6 277 1055
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19692 7695 914 491 272 146 62 0
OW 0 18 106 97 103 129 90 0
VODI 0 4 57 94 129 302 178 0
ODI 0 0 11 37 47 206 589 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 17 59 1891 2728
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 6 164 730

Date: 2015-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20702 7698 224 414 298 71 39 0
OW 0 82 26 119 161 71 23 0
VODI 0 27 13 97 319 246 148 0
ODI 0 3 2 30 138 246 582 5
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 86 1779 2773
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 6 57 546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20702 7618 223 429 328 92 53 0
OW 0 117 14 109 185 101 22 0
VODI 0 59 24 94 283 222 154 0
ODI 0 15 4 26 118 177 593 8
CDI 0 1 0 2 36 129 1739 3227
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 5 67 89

Date: 2015-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20031 8097 726 473 197 36 44 0
OW 0 23 79 171 163 59 43 0
VODI 0 0 25 139 328 195 209 0
ODI 0 0 2 28 110 168 665 20
CDI 0 0 0 1 38 43 1614 2982
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 6 58 292
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20031 8079 717 468 231 68 59 0
OW 0 23 80 168 191 78 52 0
VODI 0 16 22 135 254 167 266 0
ODI 0 2 13 32 107 123 597 18
CDI 0 0 0 9 53 66 1637 3275
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 5 22 1


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