Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2015-07-09

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16741 6841 1832 943 666 205 140 4
OW 0 3 58 131 221 196 136 0
VODI 0 0 17 78 176 302 248 0
ODI 0 0 6 30 53 262 343 1
CDI 0 0 0 76 131 428 1254 66
VCDI 0 0 0 1 8 34 2068 3368
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16631 7524 1535 1277 671 211 54 5
OW 0 0 28 141 215 141 31 0
VODI 0 0 1 74 253 249 72 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 161 416 192 1
CDI 0 0 0 15 142 645 1142 928
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 52 1443 2781
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17826 7776 1131 741 367 114 47 5
OW 0 55 115 130 140 72 53 0
VODI 0 23 86 118 212 159 66 0
ODI 0 8 40 90 259 210 120 36
CDI 0 0 9 110 388 349 1370 1217
VCDI 0 0 0 31 27 109 1267 2191
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17826 7780 1132 744 395 129 57 5
OW 0 49 117 121 133 66 34 0
VODI 0 24 86 121 189 142 77 0
ODI 0 9 35 92 270 243 151 48
CDI 0 0 10 108 371 323 1296 1012
VCDI 0 0 1 34 35 110 1308 2384

Date: 2015-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18907 7648 815 503 186 132 61 5
OW 0 68 106 149 120 39 62 0
VODI 0 2 46 101 163 242 163 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 97 266 593 1
CDI 0 0 0 11 72 107 1986 735
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 17 1387 2230
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18907 7598 821 468 209 179 79 5
OW 0 85 56 101 78 103 72 0
VODI 0 35 74 89 85 154 247 0
ODI 0 0 15 85 93 143 449 10
CDI 0 0 1 60 129 170 2747 1236
VCDI 0 0 0 2 50 54 658 1720

Date: 2015-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18103 8353 957 543 335 68 59 5
OW 0 13 83 123 161 55 58 0
VODI 0 3 22 93 282 157 140 0
ODI 0 0 4 66 242 211 407 1
CDI 0 0 1 14 129 195 1819 1090
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 1242 2022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18103 8248 874 517 380 103 79 5
OW 0 80 76 77 134 54 64 0
VODI 0 31 85 73 158 110 202 0
ODI 0 9 26 78 174 126 381 1
CDI 0 1 6 92 239 248 2579 2129
VCDI 0 0 0 2 64 56 420 983

Date: 2015-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18335 7897 1370 488 248 80 66 5
OW 0 19 100 198 84 44 63 0
VODI 0 0 42 153 242 163 146 0
ODI 0 0 2 102 213 253 577 1
CDI 0 0 0 43 154 252 1926 1299
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 30 899 1565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18335 7700 1185 517 320 122 106 5
OW 0 99 95 100 84 52 68 0
VODI 0 71 98 85 111 105 216 2
ODI 0 29 84 97 148 118 390 5
CDI 0 17 49 166 177 374 2645 2459
VCDI 0 0 3 19 109 51 252 399


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