Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2015-06-25

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16253 6482 2081 783 451 129 98 5
OW 0 53 109 132 255 135 102 0
VODI 0 18 65 94 125 235 261 0
ODI 0 6 40 63 111 134 504 1
CDI 0 0 17 54 83 240 1971 5
VCDI 0 0 0 7 6 8 1969 3982
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17071 5588 1960 1254 544 105 88 4
OW 0 38 82 123 241 137 78 0
VODI 0 8 39 114 177 276 186 0
ODI 0 0 6 53 94 258 496 1
CDI 0 0 0 54 69 222 1886 17
VCDI 0 0 0 1 8 31 2278 3480
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16859 6264 1640 1246 539 108 90 4
OW 0 8 67 155 261 158 67 0
VODI 0 0 22 122 213 272 272 0
ODI 0 0 1 49 106 272 512 6
CDI 0 0 0 55 98 248 1959 135
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 28 1911 3306
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16859 6267 1639 1261 602 126 93 4
OW 0 5 68 141 198 130 62 0
VODI 0 0 21 115 222 263 272 0
ODI 0 0 2 53 94 288 535 8
CDI 0 0 0 57 101 247 1933 137
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 32 1916 3302

Date: 2015-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17110 6590 1717 1172 383 72 89 3
OW 0 15 126 211 199 77 54 0
VODI 0 1 30 162 221 259 145 0
ODI 0 0 5 41 120 283 430 1
CDI 0 0 0 73 157 417 1081 54
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 41 2291 3425
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17110 6581 1645 1135 463 107 135 3
OW 0 22 127 237 159 107 98 0
VODI 0 3 86 124 194 286 231 0
ODI 0 0 18 67 95 208 369 1
CDI 0 0 2 94 162 396 1793 251
VCDI 0 0 0 2 19 45 1464 3228

Date: 2015-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16747 6602 2201 1138 499 65 80 3
OW 0 5 114 164 191 114 58 0
VODI 0 1 37 138 252 274 152 0
ODI 0 0 11 52 109 218 319 1
CDI 0 0 1 86 127 470 1184 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 38 2058 3536
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16747 6584 2107 1108 532 92 137 3
OW 0 21 148 185 218 135 108 0
VODI 0 3 69 128 202 253 161 0
ODI 0 0 31 55 106 250 334 4
CDI 0 0 9 98 104 393 2160 629
VCDI 0 0 0 4 31 56 951 2911

Date: 2015-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16741 6841 1832 943 666 205 140 4
OW 0 3 58 131 221 196 136 0
VODI 0 0 17 78 176 302 248 0
ODI 0 0 6 30 53 262 343 1
CDI 0 0 0 76 131 428 1254 66
VCDI 0 0 0 1 8 34 2068 3368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16741 6826 1691 921 706 275 256 4
OW 0 18 135 109 190 221 197 0
VODI 0 0 39 102 162 199 183 0
ODI 0 0 21 46 66 332 369 1
CDI 0 0 26 71 118 327 2104 379
VCDI 0 0 1 10 13 73 1080 3055


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