Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2015-06-11

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16388 6300 1123 359 144 39 52 3
OW 0 42 267 138 131 63 60 0
VODI 0 6 151 186 165 145 175 0
ODI 0 0 51 103 123 132 320 0
CDI 0 0 42 70 102 306 2299 1
VCDI 0 0 8 15 16 45 3936 3561
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16536 5789 1447 540 298 60 53 4
OW 0 11 114 187 262 121 62 0
VODI 0 1 46 94 252 273 225 0
ODI 0 0 15 29 103 201 553 1
CDI 0 0 11 27 90 289 2086 3
VCDI 0 0 0 3 9 27 3033 4212
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16623 5713 1526 679 272 97 40 4
OW 0 16 135 210 186 228 88 0
VODI 0 3 82 147 219 212 171 0
ODI 0 0 35 60 144 173 449 1
CDI 0 0 6 38 117 428 1701 1
VCDI 0 0 0 3 11 36 3067 4146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16623 5717 1556 720 288 108 61 4
OW 0 11 112 174 175 156 62 0
VODI 0 4 78 146 208 271 186 0
ODI 0 0 32 58 148 181 420 1
CDI 0 0 6 36 119 417 1727 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 11 41 3060 4147

Date: 2015-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16122 6566 1730 786 314 68 69 5
OW 0 54 200 259 186 89 43 0
VODI 0 7 46 163 241 269 124 0
ODI 0 0 20 67 110 278 494 1
CDI 0 0 4 32 102 262 1527 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 7 22 2619 4179
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16122 6509 1642 785 387 152 93 5
OW 0 81 116 174 204 134 52 0
VODI 0 32 124 144 113 194 162 0
ODI 0 5 71 111 95 167 453 1
CDI 0 0 44 75 116 292 1497 0
VCDI 0 0 3 20 45 49 2619 4179

Date: 2015-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16333 6452 2120 634 317 175 90 5
OW 0 14 142 156 192 143 83 0
VODI 0 0 73 94 127 253 273 0
ODI 0 0 38 60 79 129 513 1
CDI 0 0 22 65 103 215 1714 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 10 13 2421 4004
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16333 6386 1932 599 366 279 147 5
OW 0 61 148 104 144 110 117 0
VODI 0 19 163 115 90 164 227 0
ODI 0 0 72 85 85 132 437 1
CDI 0 0 74 91 109 213 1636 25
VCDI 0 0 6 19 34 30 2530 3979

Date: 2015-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16253 6482 2081 783 451 129 98 5
OW 0 53 109 132 255 135 102 0
VODI 0 18 65 94 125 235 261 0
ODI 0 6 40 63 111 134 504 1
CDI 0 0 17 54 83 240 1971 5
VCDI 0 0 0 7 6 8 1969 3982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16253 6376 1914 746 530 184 125 5
OW 0 78 139 89 131 92 122 0
VODI 0 71 108 112 136 198 185 0
ODI 0 31 65 74 93 148 544 1
CDI 0 3 84 84 111 199 1926 44
VCDI 0 0 2 28 30 60 2003 3943


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