Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2015-05-07

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2015-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14017 6701 581 367 119 32 8 0
OW 10 36 109 107 67 15 29 0
VODI 2 13 62 139 121 47 73 0
ODI 0 16 22 92 165 108 130 0
CDI 0 3 32 56 232 265 859 8
VCDI 0 0 0 4 104 432 7561 4323
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13691 6800 942 300 82 25 4 0
OW 7 5 150 119 61 27 27 0
VODI 2 0 84 158 104 47 59 0
ODI 0 0 23 104 160 102 105 0
CDI 0 0 12 92 178 251 626 4
VCDI 0 0 0 44 142 686 8551 3293
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13693 6800 957 305 82 31 6 0
OW 5 5 138 116 58 24 21 0
VODI 2 0 80 154 106 40 66 0
ODI 0 0 24 104 156 97 116 0
CDI 0 0 12 85 176 255 689 5
VCDI 0 0 0 53 149 691 8474 3292

Date: 2015-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14405 6655 745 267 30 7 11 0
OW 0 31 187 165 33 21 29 0
VODI 0 0 99 242 103 60 55 0
ODI 0 0 28 98 134 152 131 0
CDI 0 0 8 81 133 481 1441 5
VCDI 0 92 6 59 42 362 7697 2972
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14403 6511 639 263 29 13 15 0
OW 2 105 113 54 26 19 32 0
VODI 0 62 155 141 37 24 49 0
ODI 0 8 95 165 77 79 94 0
CDI 0 0 46 154 163 277 690 2
VCDI 0 92 25 135 143 671 8484 2975

Date: 2015-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14678 6640 631 185 40 6 15 0
OW 0 21 175 148 51 22 28 0
VODI 0 2 90 161 65 89 72 0
ODI 0 0 41 95 100 135 159 1
CDI 0 0 19 119 134 449 1520 4
VCDI 0 0 3 35 84 194 6931 3925
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14678 6421 489 157 34 15 31 0
OW 0 144 123 36 36 15 29 0
VODI 0 66 153 120 42 38 61 0
ODI 0 28 82 139 56 95 126 0
CDI 0 4 79 163 122 236 998 5
VCDI 0 0 33 128 184 496 7480 3925

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15318 6147 370 215 77 22 14 0
OW 0 52 76 145 105 42 58 0
VODI 0 15 57 152 76 118 115 0
ODI 0 2 35 90 81 145 214 3
CDI 0 0 27 75 157 437 1722 4
VCDI 0 0 16 17 55 132 6053 4628
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15318 6002 325 198 73 28 31 0
OW 0 108 69 72 69 43 29 0
VODI 0 58 67 75 61 70 110 2
ODI 0 29 23 105 79 83 188 9
CDI 0 19 49 123 126 198 1126 23
VCDI 0 0 48 121 143 474 6692 4601


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