Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2015-02-05

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13857 5325 292 178 79 15 0 0
OW 4 156 89 106 93 32 7 0
VODI 0 127 57 106 144 103 30 0
ODI 0 72 42 76 126 156 96 0
CDI 0 50 27 53 161 312 331 21
VCDI 0 48 71 115 209 514 5155 8632
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13011 5420 919 265 98 22 2 0
OW 0 88 103 88 82 37 17 0
VODI 0 43 111 76 87 85 53 0
ODI 0 13 92 95 99 148 116 0
CDI 0 3 83 84 125 274 498 4
VCDI 0 8 73 108 190 650 8625 5172
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13269 5281 648 187 85 49 16 0
OW 0 204 179 77 66 34 29 0
VODI 0 94 164 99 109 48 82 0
ODI 0 58 63 95 124 81 170 3
CDI 0 51 59 59 171 245 616 30
VCDI 0 71 129 117 204 389 8241 5371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13269 5311 641 185 92 47 12 0
OW 0 169 177 70 56 34 24 0
VODI 0 93 172 104 105 44 88 0
ODI 0 49 64 95 122 81 159 4
CDI 0 57 41 65 172 245 634 28
VCDI 0 80 147 115 212 395 8237 5372

Date: 2015-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12916 5669 574 231 106 30 8 0
OW 0 136 144 89 60 46 26 0
VODI 0 128 110 121 122 73 45 0
ODI 0 28 62 51 123 175 143 14
CDI 0 12 83 84 161 256 458 81
VCDI 0 55 111 151 246 721 8174 5244
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12916 5382 481 209 100 23 14 0
OW 0 153 94 75 59 40 17 0
VODI 0 170 104 79 95 94 63 0
ODI 0 110 83 60 100 119 147 8
CDI 0 87 81 67 159 264 387 68
VCDI 0 126 241 237 305 761 8226 5263

Date: 2015-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12488 5469 868 320 74 22 4 0
OW 0 100 111 114 69 27 18 0
VODI 0 77 109 128 107 46 50 0
ODI 0 45 64 106 97 72 105 0
CDI 0 16 82 74 169 142 281 63
VCDI 0 0 143 246 504 1136 8322 5199
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12488 5383 817 278 86 27 4 0
OW 0 93 115 111 40 45 31 0
VODI 0 88 112 130 115 81 92 0
ODI 0 52 64 110 134 100 165 27
CDI 0 55 56 97 155 157 351 109
VCDI 0 36 213 262 490 1035 8137 5126

Date: 2015-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12563 5456 569 274 80 9 0 0
OW 0 127 164 107 62 23 2 0
VODI 0 48 118 161 117 69 20 0
ODI 0 12 65 116 115 115 61 6
CDI 0 1 39 104 169 192 202 41
VCDI 0 0 81 190 375 874 8337 6003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12563 5387 543 265 72 12 1 0
OW 0 128 128 82 46 18 4 0
VODI 0 81 137 150 128 53 28 4
ODI 0 28 55 97 121 152 60 17
CDI 0 16 60 103 133 202 291 75
VCDI 0 4 113 255 418 845 8238 5954


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