Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2015-01-22

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13584 5478 563 236 84 27 10 0
OW 1 159 108 108 109 46 11 0
VODI 0 108 86 144 123 107 31 0
ODI 0 33 40 90 162 137 98 0
CDI 0 15 71 83 111 216 304 7
VCDI 0 0 95 164 189 529 7476 6124
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13254 5668 798 218 77 72 6 0
OW 0 75 101 119 82 76 24 0
VODI 0 29 114 125 111 144 73 0
ODI 0 9 75 90 137 144 161 0
CDI 0 4 68 99 129 198 361 22
VCDI 0 6 43 52 110 661 6683 6849
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13476 5460 729 248 87 62 2 0
OW 0 112 86 116 96 78 14 4
VODI 0 78 82 122 117 135 58 1
ODI 0 26 91 104 104 148 130 0
CDI 0 10 121 98 127 218 268 17
VCDI 0 16 65 70 127 486 5856 7822
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13476 5518 736 255 83 67 5 1
OW 0 74 78 113 99 70 13 4
VODI 0 69 88 119 119 135 86 0
ODI 0 21 101 102 95 148 103 0
CDI 0 4 106 94 134 224 284 19
VCDI 0 16 65 75 128 483 5837 7820

Date: 2015-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13943 5675 641 95 32 4 0 0
OW 0 66 198 130 69 28 2 0
VODI 0 37 165 119 129 154 23 0
ODI 0 14 105 84 95 185 88 0
CDI 0 1 140 94 82 144 483 19
VCDI 0 0 75 151 210 317 5935 7335
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13943 5473 447 84 27 7 2 0
OW 0 149 206 71 51 24 6 0
VODI 0 82 178 106 84 126 23 0
ODI 0 35 138 74 98 110 95 0
CDI 0 30 110 116 80 177 311 14
VCDI 0 24 245 222 277 388 6094 7340

Date: 2015-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14002 5618 350 188 30 12 0 0
OW 0 170 108 111 52 35 4 0
VODI 0 107 92 161 129 126 22 0
ODI 0 48 39 138 121 117 85 0
CDI 0 45 32 86 134 184 350 58
VCDI 0 16 94 155 184 395 5839 7630
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14002 5351 313 216 78 49 9 0
OW 0 159 124 107 60 61 36 0
VODI 0 134 70 127 119 128 71 0
ODI 0 77 57 81 89 103 150 0
CDI 0 74 46 103 88 149 406 33
VCDI 0 209 105 205 216 379 5628 7655

Date: 2015-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13857 5325 292 178 79 15 0 0
OW 4 156 89 106 93 32 7 0
VODI 0 127 57 106 144 103 30 0
ODI 0 72 42 76 126 156 96 0
CDI 0 50 27 53 161 312 331 21
VCDI 0 48 71 115 209 514 5155 8632
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13858 5145 300 222 152 87 6 0
OW 3 137 50 74 81 71 23 0
VODI 0 116 50 84 115 126 46 0
ODI 0 75 40 53 122 168 131 27
CDI 0 65 28 53 86 243 350 121
VCDI 0 240 110 148 256 437 5063 8505


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