Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2014-11-06

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17245 5856 601 215 127 45 23 0
OW 0 170 143 86 59 44 40 0
VODI 0 86 187 138 153 111 49 0
ODI 0 25 97 142 216 239 61 0
CDI 0 8 59 93 181 307 353 0
VCDI 0 1 19 96 309 657 5076 3750
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16755 6282 559 201 141 99 51 0
OW 0 114 167 116 79 52 44 0
VODI 0 11 89 68 97 83 80 0
ODI 0 7 43 46 58 95 150 2
CDI 0 1 21 26 63 204 549 14
VCDI 0 1 8 20 70 286 6566 3749
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16550 5662 771 254 167 69 6 0
OW 0 190 90 107 34 34 17 0
VODI 0 85 124 162 115 83 39 0
ODI 0 18 59 71 110 86 60 0
CDI 0 6 23 59 100 142 226 33
VCDI 0 7 27 60 112 575 6117 4617
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16550 5703 777 275 174 74 8 0
OW 0 168 101 108 49 51 15 0
VODI 0 66 105 137 102 66 40 0
ODI 0 17 62 81 109 82 71 0
CDI 0 7 31 57 101 145 243 34
VCDI 0 7 18 55 103 571 6088 4616

Date: 2014-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17133 5720 420 159 123 63 21 0
OW 8 107 140 107 79 13 5 0
VODI 0 40 82 107 99 80 38 0
ODI 0 5 40 88 92 110 187 0
CDI 0 9 21 73 115 200 394 0
VCDI 0 3 16 68 218 764 5793 4327
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17137 5453 317 144 106 67 22 0
OW 4 211 92 57 30 17 10 0
VODI 0 147 117 77 65 32 27 0
ODI 0 39 88 90 108 66 70 0
CDI 0 28 65 87 69 86 197 0
VCDI 0 6 40 147 348 962 6112 4327

Date: 2014-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14883 6675 953 344 114 48 48 0
OW 0 162 85 156 54 11 6 0
VODI 0 27 52 270 163 66 8 0
ODI 0 1 20 110 123 122 47 0
CDI 0 1 4 79 99 195 324 0
VCDI 0 0 5 114 220 774 7080 3624
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14883 6510 904 363 180 75 50 0
OW 0 165 92 92 58 32 22 0
VODI 0 153 69 122 70 43 34 0
ODI 0 32 35 184 114 103 124 0
CDI 0 6 14 172 103 161 325 0
VCDI 0 0 5 140 248 802 6958 3624

Date: 2014-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15181 6281 571 227 227 94 52 0
OW 0 57 141 68 72 50 17 0
VODI 0 13 139 98 89 55 20 0
ODI 0 0 61 74 183 90 41 0
CDI 0 0 28 72 122 197 290 1
VCDI 0 0 5 56 190 563 7365 4277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15181 6148 539 253 279 176 105 0
OW 0 129 102 48 38 42 53 0
VODI 0 60 173 89 79 51 62 0
ODI 0 10 68 89 145 52 133 0
CDI 0 4 37 57 113 166 410 4
VCDI 0 0 26 59 229 562 7022 4274


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