Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2014-10-30

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17669 5961 671 160 57 24 32 0
OW 0 316 174 112 67 45 12 0
VODI 0 123 155 175 180 120 37 0
ODI 0 40 27 60 176 251 92 0
CDI 0 28 41 64 245 515 655 0
VCDI 0 23 11 55 122 733 4745 3094
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17875 6221 376 195 71 51 29 0
OW 0 237 210 115 35 53 30 0
VODI 0 116 145 256 148 86 43 0
ODI 0 29 47 174 173 154 80 0
CDI 0 23 49 123 234 429 273 0
VCDI 0 6 20 74 245 704 4434 3504
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17335 6022 542 250 89 33 21 0
OW 0 193 170 84 47 36 24 0
VODI 0 151 203 208 137 84 30 0
ODI 0 49 68 189 238 117 59 0
CDI 0 20 56 148 223 267 307 0
VCDI 0 10 42 113 286 411 5128 3677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17335 6031 567 255 92 32 27 0
OW 0 150 171 80 49 31 25 0
VODI 0 162 192 206 145 80 28 0
ODI 0 64 57 185 221 127 66 0
CDI 0 24 53 169 227 259 319 0
VCDI 0 14 41 97 286 419 5104 3677

Date: 2014-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17032 6171 686 262 169 93 49 0
OW 0 63 112 83 72 51 36 0
VODI 0 12 70 84 101 85 98 0
ODI 0 3 28 28 53 120 219 13
CDI 0 3 15 16 40 202 842 24
VCDI 0 0 12 15 63 320 5906 3816
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17032 5772 554 182 135 101 56 0
OW 0 173 93 39 31 28 62 0
VODI 0 155 118 67 27 38 120 0
ODI 0 76 54 68 59 66 173 4
CDI 0 37 50 68 100 162 527 19
VCDI 0 39 54 64 146 476 6212 3830

Date: 2014-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16329 6176 664 282 151 106 20 0
OW 0 169 107 152 48 37 20 0
VODI 0 128 76 150 102 71 35 0
ODI 0 31 43 45 80 91 89 1
CDI 0 27 28 57 88 196 300 13
VCDI 0 11 29 43 84 490 6510 3988
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16329 5872 634 292 157 132 57 0
OW 0 201 84 51 41 42 39 0
VODI 0 224 87 81 42 41 89 0
ODI 0 81 41 91 41 69 93 1
CDI 0 74 41 84 87 159 299 7
VCDI 0 90 60 130 185 548 6397 3994

Date: 2014-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16398 5994 481 228 151 86 24 0
OW 0 178 111 65 35 49 18 0
VODI 0 99 156 145 85 96 45 0
ODI 0 38 80 90 65 78 74 0
CDI 0 10 28 48 73 80 239 9
VCDI 0 3 39 108 181 552 6514 4314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16398 5768 505 286 181 143 68 0
OW 0 159 63 59 26 29 35 0
VODI 0 240 96 56 43 62 52 0
ODI 0 106 95 58 41 67 83 0
CDI 0 42 60 96 79 87 254 8
VCDI 0 7 76 129 220 553 6422 4315


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