Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2013-11-21

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2013-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17414 5582 388 247 92 96 19 0
OW 0 723 121 118 50 14 5 0
VODI 0 629 223 232 137 39 8 0
ODI 0 147 145 229 242 283 25 0
CDI 0 1 27 74 205 425 157 1
VCDI 0 0 17 32 172 761 5176 3163
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2013-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17306 6246 406 287 109 21 14 0
OW 0 461 236 120 69 83 5 0
VODI 0 250 289 259 201 73 7 0
ODI 0 20 89 192 246 245 26 0
CDI 0 11 22 64 246 636 86 2
VCDI 0 1 29 63 229 1420 4531 2819
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2013-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16777 5729 487 358 109 9 14 0
OW 0 398 171 147 89 36 2 0
VODI 0 329 331 342 99 61 21 0
ODI 0 54 131 367 254 133 24 0
CDI 0 23 49 164 317 493 137 0
VCDI 0 0 11 62 194 939 5055 3503
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16777 6128 675 506 206 83 37 0
OW 0 109 84 118 37 30 15 0
VODI 0 176 172 212 70 50 21 0
ODI 0 92 176 331 180 90 6 0
CDI 0 28 66 183 313 361 73 0
VCDI 0 0 7 90 256 1057 5101 3503

Date: 2013-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15866 5972 1131 793 91 27 15 0
OW 0 527 146 208 141 73 6 0
VODI 0 255 213 201 126 138 42 0
ODI 0 5 49 136 160 179 152 0
CDI 0 1 23 94 162 278 353 6
VCDI 0 0 6 75 228 956 4985 3600
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15866 6061 1033 749 164 142 47 0
OW 0 172 52 54 48 37 14 0
VODI 0 258 88 106 51 71 16 0
ODI 0 148 112 100 51 78 79 1
CDI 0 101 154 143 111 138 183 5
VCDI 0 20 129 355 483 1185 5214 3600

Date: 2013-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16301 5817 477 374 50 17 17 0
OW 0 305 97 175 67 25 6 0
VODI 0 290 147 208 170 79 16 0
ODI 0 107 178 258 282 226 27 0
CDI 0 28 59 111 397 336 159 5
VCDI 0 2 17 72 225 947 5619 3726
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16301 6170 490 446 199 101 34 0
OW 0 92 59 69 42 42 10 0
VODI 0 120 75 112 92 73 37 0
ODI 0 84 101 98 98 80 22 0
CDI 0 46 122 197 188 173 78 5
VCDI 0 37 128 276 572 1161 5663 3726

Date: 2013-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15430 5955 561 315 66 39 21 0
OW 0 276 144 98 49 48 14 0
VODI 0 178 192 155 75 81 12 0
ODI 0 110 147 183 126 124 30 0
CDI 0 68 148 240 314 337 156 0
VCDI 0 13 83 239 354 1383 5476 4179
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15430 6210 733 475 156 201 72 0
OW 0 100 67 61 39 53 21 0
VODI 0 89 99 124 55 60 50 0
ODI 0 79 64 84 117 85 20 0
CDI 0 66 61 115 154 184 108 1
VCDI 0 56 251 371 463 1429 5438 4178


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