Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2012-07-05

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2012-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18844 6679 1247 738 187 19 54 8
OW 0 19 98 413 252 72 51 5
VODI 0 0 51 287 491 216 97 2
ODI 0 0 0 100 489 399 195 2
CDI 0 0 0 42 163 319 1495 586
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 10 847 2941
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2012-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19740 6653 818 450 460 147 38 0
OW 0 18 56 156 290 242 9 0
VODI 0 0 31 96 288 400 33 0
ODI 0 0 2 26 211 626 185 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 90 343 1377 512
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 49 1075 2984
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2012-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20013 5951 1253 603 444 134 48 0
OW 0 12 43 152 345 207 27 0
VODI 0 2 25 72 314 389 140 0
ODI 0 0 2 45 170 392 348 0
CDI 0 0 1 15 61 339 1543 531
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1 10 834 2952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20013 5964 1303 758 843 403 153 4
OW 0 1 11 43 101 82 51 3
VODI 0 0 6 41 150 244 191 9
ODI 0 0 4 35 172 363 604 78
CDI 0 0 0 10 67 356 1033 428
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2 23 908 2961

Date: 2012-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21230 5418 726 577 497 359 28 0
OW 0 6 62 102 197 105 18 0
VODI 0 0 2 59 290 392 95 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 261 752 492 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 20 123 1488 1244
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 5 627 2221
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21230 5414 753 662 814 646 296 33
OW 0 7 18 28 89 114 97 10
VODI 0 3 15 29 122 245 228 41
ODI 0 0 4 29 154 348 251 67
CDI 0 0 0 12 87 380 1440 726
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 436 2588

Date: 2012-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21169 5674 598 668 545 259 30 0
OW 0 7 35 182 206 73 26 0
VODI 0 0 3 114 377 375 99 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 321 502 385 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 41 115 1768 1267
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 5 429 2094
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21169 5668 615 836 943 560 410 9
OW 0 6 5 44 75 84 81 12
VODI 0 6 10 49 150 211 138 32
ODI 0 1 6 61 150 235 224 32
CDI 0 0 0 25 173 238 1530 813
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 354 2463

Date: 2012-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20855 5776 738 1133 338 82 30 0
OW 0 11 20 263 194 71 42 0
VODI 0 0 7 252 484 252 79 0
ODI 0 0 1 74 336 311 417 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 25 121 1779 1344
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 402 1971
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20855 5751 721 1432 813 346 489 24
OW 0 19 14 60 70 55 43 12
VODI 0 12 14 122 159 106 92 23
ODI 0 5 15 100 161 110 224 31
CDI 0 0 2 15 174 222 1522 951
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 379 2274


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