Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2024-02-01
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.52 | 0.68 | 46529 | 7827 | 38603 | 99 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.51 | 0.68 | 46529 | 7896 | 38526 | 107 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.51 | 0.68 | 46529 | 8053 | 38372 | 104 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.5 | 0.67 | 46529 | 7708 | 38698 | 123 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.51 | 0.69 | 46529 | 8129 | 38274 | 126 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.12 | 0.107 | 0.023 | 0.005 | 0.002 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.097 | 0.259 | 0.048 | 0.005 | 0.002 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.106 | 0.116 | 0.017 | 0.005 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.028 | 0.016 | 0.006 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.008 | 0.004 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.117 | 0.106 | 0.023 | 0.005 | 0.002 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.099 | 0.255 | 0.049 | 0.005 | 0.002 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.109 | 0.113 | 0.016 | 0.005 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.009 | 0.031 | 0.016 | 0.006 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.008 | 0.003 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.114 | 0.103 | 0.023 | 0.005 | 0.003 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.1 | 0.246 | 0.048 | 0.005 | 0.002 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.119 | 0.111 | 0.016 | 0.005 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.011 | 0.033 | 0.016 | 0.006 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.008 | 0.003 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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