Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.5   0.67   45708 7902 37723 83
Day 1 forecast -0.49   0.67   45708 7934 37689 85
Day 4 forecast -0.5   0.68   45708 8042 37579 87
Day 7 forecast -0.48   0.67   45708 7799 37814 95
Day 10 forecast -0.49   0.69   45708 8276 37335 97

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.01 0.12 0.093 0.023 0.006 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.115 0.267 0.043 0.006 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.126 0.096 0.009 0.002
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.028 0.021 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.009 0.118 0.094 0.024 0.007 0.003
c2 0 0.002 0.117 0.262 0.043 0.006 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.127 0.091 0.009 0.002
c4 0 0 0 0.008 0.032 0.023 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.009 0.115 0.092 0.023 0.007 0.003
c2 0 0.002 0.118 0.26 0.043 0.006 0.001
c3 0 0 0.009 0.127 0.088 0.009 0.002
c4 0 0 0.001 0.012 0.036 0.023 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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