Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-04

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.45	0.62	41010	6527	34439	44
Day 1 forecast	-0.46	0.63	41010	6808	34155	47
Day 4 forecast	-0.47	0.64	41010	7055	33908	47
Day 7 forecast	-0.45	0.62	41010	6687	34273	50
Day 10 forecast	-0.49	0.66	41010	7766	33199	45

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.016	0.167	0.096	0.013	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.002	0.161	0.2	0.03	0.008	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.148	0.083	0.008	0.001
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.025	0.017	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.016	0.164	0.095	0.014	0.004	0.001
	c2	0	0.002	0.164	0.206	0.035	0.009	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.143	0.079	0.007	0.001
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.024	0.016	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.015	0.148	0.088	0.013	0.004	0.001
	c2	0	0.003	0.18	0.212	0.037	0.009	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.143	0.077	0.007	0.001
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.024	0.016	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri 19 Jan 2024 02:07:14 AM UTC on arcval