Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.46   0.69   33361 6890 26444 27
Day 1 forecast -0.47   0.69   33361 7152 26180 29
Day 4 forecast -0.48   0.7   33361 7389 25945 27
Day 7 forecast -0.46   0.68   33361 6894 26437 30
Day 10 forecast -0.54   0.74   33361 8714 24628 19

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.047 0.315 0.076 0.01 0.002 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.088 0.139 0.024 0.002 0.002
c3 0 0 0.014 0.141 0.063 0.005 0.001
c4 0 0 0 0.012 0.036 0.01 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.002 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.047 0.315 0.077 0.011 0.002 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.088 0.142 0.025 0.002 0.002
c3 0 0 0.013 0.137 0.062 0.005 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.012 0.037 0.01 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.047 0.31 0.075 0.011 0.002 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.093 0.143 0.025 0.002 0.002
c3 0 0 0.013 0.138 0.061 0.005 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.012 0.037 0.01 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.002 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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