Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.56   0.81   49720 7826 41808 86
Day 1 forecast -0.56   0.81   49720 7934 41696 90
Day 4 forecast -0.57   0.82   49720 8070 41560 90
Day 7 forecast -0.56   0.81   49720 7840 41784 96
Day 10 forecast -0.57   0.83   49720 8483 41146 91

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.047 0.087 0.028 0.009 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.049 0.258 0.081 0.011 0.003
c3 0 0 0.003 0.098 0.108 0.015 0.003
c4 0 0 0 0.004 0.027 0.043 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0.006 0.042 0.043
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.014

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.047 0.087 0.028 0.008 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.049 0.263 0.084 0.011 0.003
c3 0 0 0.003 0.092 0.106 0.015 0.003
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.025 0.042 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0.007 0.041 0.042
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.015

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.046 0.085 0.027 0.008 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.05 0.263 0.085 0.012 0.003
c3 0 0 0.004 0.094 0.107 0.015 0.004
c4 0 0 0 0.004 0.026 0.042 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.04 0.04
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.018

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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