Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.57   0.92   48948 7796 41052 100
Day 1 forecast -0.57   0.92   48948 7865 40980 103
Day 4 forecast -0.58   0.92   48948 7964 40879 105
Day 7 forecast -0.56   0.92   48948 7745 41082 121
Day 10 forecast -0.57   0.93   48948 8121 40699 128

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.057 0.085 0.027 0.009 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.066 0.267 0.063 0.01 0.004
c3 0 0 0.005 0.089 0.087 0.015 0.005
c4 0 0 0 0.006 0.026 0.042 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.044 0.044
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.017

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.057 0.087 0.026 0.009 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.066 0.267 0.064 0.011 0.004
c3 0 0 0.005 0.088 0.086 0.015 0.006
c4 0 0 0 0.006 0.026 0.042 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.008 0.044 0.043
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.017

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.055 0.087 0.027 0.009 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.067 0.264 0.062 0.01 0.004
c3 0 0 0.005 0.091 0.087 0.015 0.005
c4 0 0 0 0.006 0.025 0.042 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.008 0.043 0.04
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.021

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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