Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.5	0.82	47879	6938	40750	191
Day 1 forecast	-0.5	0.82	47879	6948	40720	211
Day 4 forecast	-0.5	0.82	47879	7034	40633	212
Day 7 forecast	-0.49	0.82	47879	6811	40846	222
Day 10 forecast	-0.48	0.82	47879	6925	40725	229

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.064	0.09	0.02	0.005	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.11	0.267	0.043	0.007	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.085	0.07	0.007	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.036	0.03	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.06	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.005	0.012

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.062	0.091	0.02	0.005	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.111	0.266	0.043	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.085	0.07	0.008	0.007
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.036	0.028	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.01	0.061	0.034
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.004	0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.06	0.088	0.019	0.005	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.112	0.262	0.042	0.007	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.09	0.073	0.009	0.007
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.035	0.027	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.06	0.032
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.006	0.013

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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