Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-02-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.5	0.89	24679	4516	20000	163
Day 1 forecast	-0.5	0.89	24679	4474	20021	184
Day 4 forecast	-0.5	0.89	24679	4532	19970	177
Day 7 forecast	-0.48	0.88	24679	4373	20101	205
Day 10 forecast	-0.49	0.9	24679	4664	19833	182

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.044	0.068	0.021	0.006	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.064	0.226	0.067	0.01	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.093	0.084	0.015	0.006
	c4	0	0	0	0.012	0.05	0.038	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.004	0.032	0.07	0.049
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.003	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.043	0.065	0.021	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.002	0.064	0.22	0.066	0.011	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.101	0.089	0.016	0.007
	c4	0	0	0	0.013	0.046	0.038	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0.005	0.03	0.068	0.048
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.004	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.042	0.062	0.02	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.002	0.064	0.216	0.066	0.011	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.107	0.092	0.017	0.007
	c4	0	0	0	0.013	0.044	0.037	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0.005	0.03	0.067	0.045
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.005	0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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