Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-01-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.33	0.61	19131	3029	15739	363
Day 1 forecast	-0.33	0.61	19131	3051	15698	382
Day 4 forecast	-0.34	0.61	19131	3077	15689	365
Day 7 forecast	-0.32	0.61	19131	3049	15687	395
Day 10 forecast	-0.35	0.63	19131	3212	15509	410

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.015	0.084	0.055	0.018	0.003	0.002
	c2	0	0.008	0.129	0.102	0.024	0.005	0.003
	c3	0	0.001	0.023	0.134	0.122	0.034	0.01
	c4	0	0	0.017	0.048	0.08	0.055	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.006	0.006	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.014	0.076	0.052	0.018	0.003	0.001
	c2	0	0.009	0.136	0.107	0.026	0.006	0.004
	c3	0	0.001	0.023	0.131	0.123	0.036	0.01
	c4	0	0	0.018	0.049	0.08	0.054	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.004	0.004	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.013	0.068	0.049	0.018	0.003	0.002
	c2	0	0.01	0.142	0.108	0.026	0.007	0.005
	c3	0	0.001	0.025	0.13	0.124	0.036	0.008
	c4	0	0	0.018	0.052	0.079	0.052	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.004	0.004	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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