Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.45   0.65   40252 6649 33535 68
Day 1 forecast -0.45   0.66   40252 6830 33351 71
Day 4 forecast -0.46   0.66   40252 7008 33174 70
Day 7 forecast -0.44   0.65   40252 6679 33491 82
Day 10 forecast -0.48   0.68   40252 7710 32483 59

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.018 0.2 0.097 0.02 0.005 0.003
c2 0 0.003 0.114 0.132 0.024 0.005 0.001
c3 0 0 0.016 0.081 0.105 0.017 0.003
c4 0 0 0.002 0.036 0.084 0.024 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.017 0.199 0.098 0.02 0.005 0.002
c2 0 0.004 0.114 0.135 0.027 0.006 0.002
c3 0 0 0.016 0.075 0.107 0.021 0.004
c4 0 0 0.002 0.038 0.078 0.019 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0 0.003 0.003 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.017 0.188 0.095 0.019 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.004 0.122 0.139 0.029 0.006 0.002
c3 0 0 0.018 0.073 0.107 0.023 0.004
c4 0 0 0.002 0.039 0.076 0.016 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0 0.003 0.004 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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