Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-22

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.5	0.7	39839	7860	31925	54
Day 1 forecast	-0.51	0.71	39839	8226	31559	54
Day 4 forecast	-0.52	0.72	39839	8425	31363	51
Day 7 forecast	-0.51	0.7	39839	7989	31791	59
Day 10 forecast	-0.54	0.73	39839	9083	30717	39

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.018	0.218	0.118	0.021	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.002	0.079	0.136	0.033	0.005	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.065	0.112	0.021	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.031	0.08	0.018	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.005	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.018	0.221	0.123	0.021	0.005	0.004
	c2	0	0.002	0.077	0.133	0.037	0.006	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.062	0.108	0.023	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.032	0.08	0.016	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.005	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.017	0.215	0.121	0.021	0.004	0.004
	c2	0	0.002	0.082	0.135	0.038	0.007	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.062	0.107	0.023	0.007
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.032	0.08	0.016	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.005	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh ma. 18. sep. 10:40:58 +0000 2023 on arcval