Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.46   0.66   35126 7591 27335 200
Day 1 forecast -0.46   0.66   35126 7654 27286 186
Day 4 forecast -0.46   0.67   35126 7800 27150 176
Day 7 forecast -0.45   0.65   35126 7400 27526 200
Day 10 forecast -0.48   0.68   35126 8308 26659 159

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.039 0.249 0.102 0.017 0.003 0.001
c2 0 0.001 0.077 0.112 0.035 0.005 0.001
c3 0 0 0.015 0.083 0.077 0.017 0.004
c4 0 0 0.004 0.043 0.093 0.015 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.001 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.039 0.248 0.101 0.017 0.003 0.001
c2 0 0.001 0.078 0.11 0.037 0.006 0.001
c3 0 0 0.016 0.088 0.078 0.016 0.004
c4 0 0 0.004 0.04 0.091 0.015 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.038 0.243 0.097 0.015 0.003 0.001
c2 0 0.002 0.083 0.111 0.039 0.007 0.001
c3 0 0 0.015 0.091 0.077 0.016 0.004
c4 0 0 0.004 0.039 0.091 0.015 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.001 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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