Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-11-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.42   0.63   31219 7986 23160 73
Day 1 forecast -0.44   0.64   31219 8224 22925 70
Day 4 forecast -0.45   0.65   31219 8484 22669 66
Day 7 forecast -0.43   0.63   31219 7995 23151 73
Day 10 forecast -0.54   0.74   31219 11384 19659 176

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.078 0.237 0.073 0.011 0.003 0.001
c2 0 0.001 0.089 0.137 0.016 0.001 0
c3 0 0 0.021 0.122 0.064 0.002 0.001
c4 0 0 0.002 0.041 0.087 0.011 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.077 0.237 0.073 0.011 0.003 0.001
c2 0 0.001 0.089 0.14 0.017 0.001 0
c3 0 0 0.021 0.13 0.075 0.004 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.03 0.075 0.009 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.077 0.235 0.071 0.01 0.002 0.001
c2 0 0.001 0.09 0.143 0.017 0.001 0
c3 0 0 0.021 0.13 0.079 0.005 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.029 0.073 0.009 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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