Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-04-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.35   0.67   52686 8119 44427 140
Day 1 forecast -0.36   0.68   52686 8246 44292 148
Day 4 forecast -0.36   0.69   52686 8363 44171 152
Day 7 forecast -0.35   0.68   52686 8122 44408 156
Day 10 forecast -0.38   0.68   52686 7985 44554 147

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.052 0.082 0.025 0.007 0.002
c2 0 0.001 0.017 0.067 0.021 0.006 0.002
c3 0 0 0.012 0.176 0.125 0.014 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.016 0.09 0.047 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.035 0.092 0.023
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.016 0.048

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.052 0.084 0.026 0.007 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.017 0.066 0.021 0.006 0.002
c3 0 0 0.012 0.176 0.125 0.014 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.016 0.092 0.052 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.032 0.086 0.022
c6 0 0 0 0 0.003 0.016 0.048

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.051 0.082 0.026 0.007 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.018 0.065 0.022 0.007 0.003
c3 0 0 0.013 0.176 0.121 0.013 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.018 0.095 0.054 0.009
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.032 0.085 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.015 0.045

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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