Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-04-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.35	0.67	52686	8119	44427	140
Day 1 forecast	-0.36	0.68	52686	8246	44292	148
Day 4 forecast	-0.36	0.69	52686	8363	44171	152
Day 7 forecast	-0.35	0.68	52686	8122	44408	156
Day 10 forecast	-0.38	0.68	52686	7985	44554	147

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.052	0.082	0.025	0.007	0.002
	c2	0	0.001	0.017	0.067	0.021	0.006	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.012	0.176	0.125	0.014	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.016	0.09	0.047	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.035	0.092	0.023
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.016	0.048

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.052	0.084	0.026	0.007	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.017	0.066	0.021	0.006	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.012	0.176	0.125	0.014	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.016	0.092	0.052	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.032	0.086	0.022
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.016	0.048

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.051	0.082	0.026	0.007	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.018	0.065	0.022	0.007	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.176	0.121	0.013	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.018	0.095	0.054	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.032	0.085	0.025
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.015	0.045

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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