Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-31

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.38   0.68   52428 8530 43766 132
Day 1 forecast -0.38   0.68   52428 8385 43895 148
Day 4 forecast -0.39   0.69   52428 8420 43850 158
Day 7 forecast -0.38   0.68   52428 8203 44067 158
Day 10 forecast -0.41   0.7   52428 8485 43694 249

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.046 0.085 0.024 0.006 0.003
c2 0 0 0.018 0.072 0.026 0.007 0.002
c3 0 0 0.011 0.16 0.141 0.016 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.019 0.095 0.052 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.023 0.088 0.029
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.013 0.043

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.045 0.081 0.023 0.006 0.003
c2 0 0 0.019 0.078 0.028 0.007 0.003
c3 0 0 0.011 0.157 0.141 0.016 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.018 0.095 0.057 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.021 0.084 0.035
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.011 0.036

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.044 0.077 0.022 0.006 0.003
c2 0 0 0.02 0.082 0.029 0.008 0.003
c3 0 0 0.011 0.155 0.139 0.015 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.019 0.096 0.06 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.021 0.082 0.036
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.011 0.035

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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