Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.45	0.73	52270	8315	43865	90
Day 1 forecast	-0.46	0.74	52270	8500	43676	94
Day 4 forecast	-0.47	0.75	52270	8646	43538	86
Day 7 forecast	-0.46	0.74	52270	8355	43805	110
Day 10 forecast	-0.51	0.78	52270	9361	42801	108

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.052	0.074	0.023	0.008	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.039	0.151	0.045	0.006	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.106	0.123	0.014	0.002
	c4	0	0	0	0.013	0.096	0.067	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.017	0.085	0.032
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.012

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.052	0.074	0.024	0.008	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.04	0.165	0.055	0.006	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.093	0.117	0.015	0.002
	c4	0	0	0	0.011	0.091	0.068	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.016	0.082	0.03
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.013

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.05	0.072	0.023	0.008	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.041	0.169	0.057	0.007	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.091	0.118	0.014	0.002
	c4	0	0	0	0.011	0.089	0.068	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.016	0.079	0.027
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.016

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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