Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-03

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.4   0.69   52365 7991 44234 140
Day 1 forecast -0.42   0.7   52365 8271 43946 148
Day 4 forecast -0.43   0.71   52365 8484 43738 143
Day 7 forecast -0.41   0.71   52365 8167 44035 163
Day 10 forecast -0.44   0.73   52365 8793 43414 158

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.059 0.07 0.022 0.007 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.063 0.189 0.045 0.005 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.007 0.105 0.078 0.009 0.002
c4 0 0 0.001 0.02 0.113 0.047 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.025 0.077 0.019
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.061 0.073 0.022 0.006 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.061 0.194 0.048 0.006 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.007 0.099 0.082 0.01 0.002
c4 0 0 0 0.019 0.109 0.052 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.023 0.069 0.017
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.062 0.072 0.022 0.006 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.061 0.194 0.048 0.007 0.002
c3 0 0.001 0.007 0.1 0.084 0.01 0.002
c4 0 0 0 0.018 0.104 0.052 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.024 0.066 0.015
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.009 0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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