Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-02-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.37	0.61	49336	7267	41970	99
Day 1 forecast	-0.37	0.61	49336	7396	41834	106
Day 4 forecast	-0.38	0.62	49336	7482	41755	99
Day 7 forecast	-0.36	0.61	49336	7411	41795	130
Day 10 forecast	-0.4	0.62	49336	7254	41974	108

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.076	0.083	0.022	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.002	0.111	0.181	0.024	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.008	0.116	0.079	0.009	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.015	0.09	0.048	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.03	0.058	0.013
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.005

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.076	0.084	0.022	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.002	0.11	0.183	0.025	0.004	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.114	0.085	0.01	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.013	0.081	0.049	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.004	0.031	0.056	0.012
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.076	0.083	0.021	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.002	0.108	0.177	0.026	0.004	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.118	0.084	0.01	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.015	0.081	0.048	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.004	0.032	0.056	0.012
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh ma. 07. mars 08:15:32 +0000 2022 on arcval