Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-02-03

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.38   0.67   47860 6657 41093 110
Day 1 forecast -0.39   0.67   47860 6524 41216 120
Day 4 forecast -0.39   0.67   47860 6555 41192 113
Day 7 forecast -0.38   0.67   47860 6401 41316 143
Day 10 forecast -0.39   0.68   47860 6634 41081 145

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.009 0.086 0.077 0.015 0.005 0.006
c2 0 0.003 0.127 0.205 0.028 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.111 0.091 0.007 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.016 0.087 0.026 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.025 0.046 0.009
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.009 0.086 0.076 0.015 0.004 0.006
c2 0 0.003 0.127 0.209 0.028 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.108 0.097 0.009 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.015 0.082 0.026 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.023 0.044 0.009
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.009 0.085 0.076 0.015 0.004 0.006
c2 0 0.003 0.127 0.208 0.029 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.009 0.108 0.098 0.01 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.014 0.077 0.024 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.004 0.027 0.045 0.009
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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