Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-27

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.38	0.7	47663	6509	41036	118
Day 1 forecast	-0.38	0.7	47663	6458	41080	125
Day 4 forecast	-0.38	0.7	47663	6462	41072	129
Day 7 forecast	-0.37	0.7	47663	6439	41076	148
Day 10 forecast	-0.39	0.71	47663	6710	40807	146

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.01	0.101	0.086	0.016	0.004	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.15	0.178	0.024	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.114	0.089	0.005	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.017	0.093	0.03	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.014	0.034	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.009	0.101	0.087	0.016	0.004	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.15	0.177	0.025	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.114	0.089	0.006	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.017	0.089	0.03	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.015	0.033	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.009	0.097	0.087	0.016	0.004	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.151	0.175	0.027	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.115	0.087	0.006	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.017	0.085	0.027	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.019	0.036	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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